Of course a wise person will hedge his or her bets ...
In 2011 the U.S. economy took everything that nature and venal politicians could throw at it and still managed to grow overall. It could have been a banner year, but the tsunami in Japan, the politics of Washington, high oil prices due to Libya, the Euro crisis, and finally flooding in Thailand all took a toll.
I think the most likely scenario for the U.S. economy in 2012 is moderately strong growth. I don't think turmoil in Europe will hurt the profits of very many American companies; the worst effects will come from converting the Euro to dollars for multinationals, if they have substantial European sales and the dollar continues to strengthen. Keep in mind that the alarmist view of Europe may not pan out, in which case a rising Euro could have the opposite effect.
2011 was also the year in which almost every professional economist in the U.S. predicted a new recession, which did not happen, despite the best efforts of Congress. Where do they find these guys?
In fact, I would hazard that strong U.S. economic growth is now more likely than another recession, in 2012. Demand is out there: consumer demand for autos and housing, which are big economic drivers, is strong. Credit is a constraining factor, but there is still plenty of stimulus from the Fed and the deficit.
We are clearly in the virtuous cycle where demand leads to more employment and profits, which in turn creates more demand. It might even give bankers and other major capitalists enough confidence to invest in expansion. I'm not advocating going back to bubble days, but there is as much danger in being too cautious as there is in pretending there is no such thing as a risky investment or loan.
That should mean the stock market is heading up, but stocks are bought by by individuals, one decision at a time. Companies with the best track records for generating profits are already attracting investors. It is hard to find an overvalued stock today, although I could name a few. Undervalued stocks are plentiful, just pick a flavor, do thorough research, and avoid the wooden nickels.
Will the bond market fall? It should, but it won't as long as enough people are willing to accept almost no returns on their capital, as long as the capital is preserved and reasonably liquid. Once the bond market starts falling, if the economy is getting strong, watch out. Get out quick, while the getting is still good.
The gold bubble seems to have popped. I never liked gold as an asset (See The Gold Bubble [November 18, 2009]), but enough fools bidding on a Beanie Baby can make it seem valuable, until the auction fever dies. Gold has no intrinsic value. It just sits there, useless. Its price depends on the whims of jewelry consumers and irrational investors.
It would be helpful if the price of petroleum came down, but oil prices are geopolitical, for the most part set where the dictator of Saudi Arabia wants them set.
Inflation is dead in the U.S. for the moment, but high prices for agricultural commodities are giving some state economies a good boost. Wages will remain dead in the water until more unemployed workers are soaked up, so I don't intend to worry about inflation until 2013.
The main fly in the ointment is potential political suicide. Most investors know that the national deficit needs to be brought under control. The best way to do that is to freeze or even reduce federal expenditures, then allow for economic growth to increase tax revenues to the point the budget is balanced, and then start reducing the deficit. Counter-cyclical federal budgets were a major key to U.S. economic success ever since the Great Depression. Deficit spending during booms is as stupid as cutbacks during recessions. In no case does a train wreck in Washington help the situation.
Investors and the nation (and its government) need a long term outlook. It will take years to get to a balanced budget, and perhaps decades to significantly reduce the national debt. That takes planning and discipline. The Communist Party of China could accomplish that. Could we do it? Sure, we could. Will we? Only if long term, public-spirited investors insist on it.
Here's an outside opinion: the U.S. could become the driver of the global economy again in 2012, for the first time since 2006. We are still a big, rich, creative, and occasionally hard-working nation. Our natural direction is up.
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
The Oil Price Oscillator
Most Americans have noticed gasoline prices have been jacked up for the summer driving season. Those who read the financial pages know there is a glut of oil and gasoline available. If the corporations that set pricing keep prices up, and demand remains low, the glut will still be there in September.
But if there is an economic recovery, either in the U.S. or globally, the current glut will work down to normal levels and then to shortages. Prices will get jacked up further at the pump. And that, in turn, should moderate any economic upswing. It might even bring consumer consumption of everything but gasoline crashing back down.
It is very possible that we are in a period of oil prices being the primary oscillator for the economy. That is, when oil prices are up, the economy will slow, stall, and then decline. Oil prices will then fall by a greater percentage than the economy as a whole. Which only allows the economy to repeat the cycle.
This is a limits-to-growth scenario. It assumes the economy can only grow so much without more oil as an input, because the price of oil determines how much of the economic pie is left for everything else.
Over time, oil prices should become less of a controlling factor. We have already seen some of this. The shift from low mile-per-gallon SUVs to smaller cars and hybrids is just one example of how the shift could take place in the long run.
Some economists and analysts will get out their spread sheets and try to make numeric predictions about exactly how oil and gasoline prices will affect the economy in the short run. When dealing with something as complex as the economy, using a rule of thumb is more honest than pretending you can predict with finer granularity. There are too many other factors affecting the macroeconomy, ranging from how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates to billions of one time decisions by individuals that are small in themselves but in aggregate create macroeconomic trends.
But if there is an economic recovery, either in the U.S. or globally, the current glut will work down to normal levels and then to shortages. Prices will get jacked up further at the pump. And that, in turn, should moderate any economic upswing. It might even bring consumer consumption of everything but gasoline crashing back down.
It is very possible that we are in a period of oil prices being the primary oscillator for the economy. That is, when oil prices are up, the economy will slow, stall, and then decline. Oil prices will then fall by a greater percentage than the economy as a whole. Which only allows the economy to repeat the cycle.
This is a limits-to-growth scenario. It assumes the economy can only grow so much without more oil as an input, because the price of oil determines how much of the economic pie is left for everything else.
Over time, oil prices should become less of a controlling factor. We have already seen some of this. The shift from low mile-per-gallon SUVs to smaller cars and hybrids is just one example of how the shift could take place in the long run.
Some economists and analysts will get out their spread sheets and try to make numeric predictions about exactly how oil and gasoline prices will affect the economy in the short run. When dealing with something as complex as the economy, using a rule of thumb is more honest than pretending you can predict with finer granularity. There are too many other factors affecting the macroeconomy, ranging from how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates to billions of one time decisions by individuals that are small in themselves but in aggregate create macroeconomic trends.
Friday, October 10, 2008
America For Sale
This week we are seeing the largest turnover in the ownership of American corporations since the Great Depression.
We know who the people (and institutions) that are selling undervalued stocks are. They are people who are panicking, and people who have no choice because the stocks they are selling are their only source of cash to pay their debts on losses in mortgage-related securities.
But who is buying? Every sale requires a buyer. I don't have the best vantage point, but it sure looks to me like it is mainly petroleum cash coming into the market. I don't mean commodities investors fleeing the popping oil bubble (which I first wrote about back in Oil Bubble to Burst, on March 11, 2008). I mean the actual oil producers, mainly Arab nations, that have accumulated vast amounts of dollars (and Euros) that had not yet been invested.
Back in the 1980's we worried that the Japanese would end up owning the United States. They bought into U.S corporations, but mainly they bought land and buildings. In the short run they created a mini-bubble and got hurt, but those that kept their American real estate did well long-term.
Do I care that Arabs are going to own substantial portions of America's economy? No, it is part of the global economy. Only a few decades ago U.S. corporations owned much of Arabian oil production. The Arabs are not just lucky to have a lot of oil. They have worked hard, for decades, to develop their production capacity and their financial knowledge. They know the oil will run out eventually, so they are investing much of their returns, rather than spending them (not that they don't have plenty to spend, too).
Americans, as a whole, have been way too busy spending money and way too careless about making it. I think most Americans work reasonably hard, they just don't worry about the future enough to be bothered to save or invest. Some of us save, but we are more than balanced by the spendthrifts.
Today it looks like the future belongs to the Arabs, and maybe the Indians and Chinese. These United States of America are probably good for a comeback, but only if we create an economy that is not dependent on giving credit to spendthrifts to keep going.
We know who the people (and institutions) that are selling undervalued stocks are. They are people who are panicking, and people who have no choice because the stocks they are selling are their only source of cash to pay their debts on losses in mortgage-related securities.
But who is buying? Every sale requires a buyer. I don't have the best vantage point, but it sure looks to me like it is mainly petroleum cash coming into the market. I don't mean commodities investors fleeing the popping oil bubble (which I first wrote about back in Oil Bubble to Burst, on March 11, 2008). I mean the actual oil producers, mainly Arab nations, that have accumulated vast amounts of dollars (and Euros) that had not yet been invested.
Back in the 1980's we worried that the Japanese would end up owning the United States. They bought into U.S corporations, but mainly they bought land and buildings. In the short run they created a mini-bubble and got hurt, but those that kept their American real estate did well long-term.
Do I care that Arabs are going to own substantial portions of America's economy? No, it is part of the global economy. Only a few decades ago U.S. corporations owned much of Arabian oil production. The Arabs are not just lucky to have a lot of oil. They have worked hard, for decades, to develop their production capacity and their financial knowledge. They know the oil will run out eventually, so they are investing much of their returns, rather than spending them (not that they don't have plenty to spend, too).
Americans, as a whole, have been way too busy spending money and way too careless about making it. I think most Americans work reasonably hard, they just don't worry about the future enough to be bothered to save or invest. Some of us save, but we are more than balanced by the spendthrifts.
Today it looks like the future belongs to the Arabs, and maybe the Indians and Chinese. These United States of America are probably good for a comeback, but only if we create an economy that is not dependent on giving credit to spendthrifts to keep going.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Oil Bubble to Burst?
Noticing that there is a bubble is no big deal. I noticed that there was a stock market bubble in the late 1990's. I noticed that there was a real-estate bubble in the mid 2000's.
And I've noticed that there is an oil bubble that started a couple of years ago.
But calling an end to a bubble is difficult. How do you know when investors are going to collectively realize that all their stocks can't be the next Microsoft?
And given how irrational the Federal Reserve has acted in the past 20 years, even though you could predict that the housing bubble would burst when the Fed raised rates high enough, there was no way to predict when the Fed would get around to acting.
We are in an oil bubble. But that does not mean that the price of oil can't go higher, or that it might not take years instead of months for it to burst.
Consider the counter-argument: the globe has reached peak oil production, but demand is still rising rapidly, so prices will continue to be pushed up.
I believe it is likely that we have reached the vicinity of peak oil production, but Saudi Arabia could flood the global market with oil tomorrow if it desired to, and keep the flood running for at least a couple of decades.
Demand is already being pinched, but converting from oil to other energy sources, or to conservation, is a slow process. Yet it is happening. Talk to any car dealer in the U.S. about what has been selling in 2008, and they will tell you: fuel efficiency. People are sizing down. They are going to size down through all of 2008, and in 2009 Americans will be using a lot less gas.
True, demand in India, China, and other developing countries will increase. But these nations are also rapidly adopting non-oil based energy technologies.
Consider Applied Materials (AMAT) [disclosure:I own this stock]. It sells a line of solar panel factories. That is, it makes all the tools you need to make massive, low cost solar panels. You build a big building and move in one of the factories. You spit out solar panels. Another company paves large sections of the earth with them. Soon all-electric cars will run on the energy from these massive solar installations.
Multiply that example by a thousand other innovative companies and the practical decisions of billions of individual consumers, and you have demand for oil that is drying up. In addition, there is plenty of oil and gas. Do you see people lined up waiting for gas? No. There are no shortages. At least half of the current price of oil is pure speculative fever.
Maybe it is a good thing. Maybe these speculators are doing more to ease global warming than the federal government ever did or ever will do. But if federal taxes had been used to raise gasoline prices to today's level, we would not have a huge federal budget deficit in addition to our other troubles.
I can't say when the bubble will burst. And artificial shortages, like the one caused by the Iraq war, or Enron's gaming, could be created.
Meanwhile real estate is reasonable and stocks are dirt cheap. Food is another matter. We are in that part of the Malthusian cycle when there is not enough food for all the people who have procreated. If you bought sacks of flour last year your return today would be better than most managed stock funds performed.
It is a strange, new world. The pace of change in the 20th century will prove to be nothing compared to changes this century. And one change is coming fast: the end of the Oil Era.
And I've noticed that there is an oil bubble that started a couple of years ago.
But calling an end to a bubble is difficult. How do you know when investors are going to collectively realize that all their stocks can't be the next Microsoft?
And given how irrational the Federal Reserve has acted in the past 20 years, even though you could predict that the housing bubble would burst when the Fed raised rates high enough, there was no way to predict when the Fed would get around to acting.
We are in an oil bubble. But that does not mean that the price of oil can't go higher, or that it might not take years instead of months for it to burst.
Consider the counter-argument: the globe has reached peak oil production, but demand is still rising rapidly, so prices will continue to be pushed up.
I believe it is likely that we have reached the vicinity of peak oil production, but Saudi Arabia could flood the global market with oil tomorrow if it desired to, and keep the flood running for at least a couple of decades.
Demand is already being pinched, but converting from oil to other energy sources, or to conservation, is a slow process. Yet it is happening. Talk to any car dealer in the U.S. about what has been selling in 2008, and they will tell you: fuel efficiency. People are sizing down. They are going to size down through all of 2008, and in 2009 Americans will be using a lot less gas.
True, demand in India, China, and other developing countries will increase. But these nations are also rapidly adopting non-oil based energy technologies.
Consider Applied Materials (AMAT) [disclosure:I own this stock]. It sells a line of solar panel factories. That is, it makes all the tools you need to make massive, low cost solar panels. You build a big building and move in one of the factories. You spit out solar panels. Another company paves large sections of the earth with them. Soon all-electric cars will run on the energy from these massive solar installations.
Multiply that example by a thousand other innovative companies and the practical decisions of billions of individual consumers, and you have demand for oil that is drying up. In addition, there is plenty of oil and gas. Do you see people lined up waiting for gas? No. There are no shortages. At least half of the current price of oil is pure speculative fever.
Maybe it is a good thing. Maybe these speculators are doing more to ease global warming than the federal government ever did or ever will do. But if federal taxes had been used to raise gasoline prices to today's level, we would not have a huge federal budget deficit in addition to our other troubles.
I can't say when the bubble will burst. And artificial shortages, like the one caused by the Iraq war, or Enron's gaming, could be created.
Meanwhile real estate is reasonable and stocks are dirt cheap. Food is another matter. We are in that part of the Malthusian cycle when there is not enough food for all the people who have procreated. If you bought sacks of flour last year your return today would be better than most managed stock funds performed.
It is a strange, new world. The pace of change in the 20th century will prove to be nothing compared to changes this century. And one change is coming fast: the end of the Oil Era.
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