Monday, March 31, 2014

High-Speed Trading article and thoughts

The Wolf Hunters of Wall Street

You should read the NY Times article about high-speed trading at the above link if you haven't yet. It is fascinating in and of itself.

It confirms my belief that I can make more money investing in or trading stocks with a long-term view (1 to 3 year time horizon) than I could as a short-term or day trader. Sitting here, with a 3-second satellite delay, the trades still seem instant in human time. Of course my trades are so small that they only affect stock prices on infrequently traded small caps, and then only for a second or two.

It is kind of funny, though. Big guys, whales, getting sucked dry by a team of Russian-American computer programmers. Sometimes it isn't so bad being plankton. If I get screwed by a penny or two a share, in the long run I make it back because most of these guys have no long term strategy.

I bought some more Mylan (Mylan) today. Was the price fair today? It doesn't matter much to me: in three years, in retrospect, it will (highly likely) look like a great price.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Dendreon (DNDN) commentary

Thanks to the editors at Seeking Alpha for publishing my latest:

Dendreon Ready For A Rebound

It is a complex picture, and there are no guarantees. Stocks like Dendreon are best played only by those who are good at balancing risk.

I own Dendreon (DNDN) stock. I have always had some amount of Dendreon since I first bought it in 2004, but sold most of mine in 2009-2010, then started accumulating it again in 2013.

I take notes on Dendreon quarterly results and analyst conferences; follow the link to read them.

Dendreon sells its Provenge therapy for castrate-resistant, minimally symptomatic metastatic prostate cancer.

Monday, March 24, 2014

Amgen (AMGN) initial buy

Just to record that I bought my first Amgen (AMGN) shares this morning.

I wrote about Amgen at Seeking Alpha in: Amgen With Onyx Pharmaceuticals: Long-Term Analysis on September 4, 2013. I used to own Onyx Pharmaceuticals; it was one of my best-performing stocks when acquired by Amgen.

While I continue to search for small cap companies with potential therapies that are undervalued, I also think that sometimes larger companies become undervalued. Amgen is making solid profits and has a strong pipeline. For me that adds a lot of diversity. Also, Amgen pays a bit of a dividend, which never hurts.

I'll continue to report on and analyze this company at Amgen Research and Analysis

Keep diversified!

Saturday, March 22, 2014

cancer checkpoint modulators

Having heard several times that checkpoint inhibitors or modulators were the next big thing in cancer prevention, I looked for a background article on them on the Internet. What little there is can be found in professional science/medical journals, behind pay walls, with only the abstract available. So I wrote something up that does not assume you have a PhD in biochemistry:

Checkpoint Inhibitors which is at my main finance & technology site, It may be modified over time, which is a reason I am not just simply reposting it here.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Mylan (MYL) added to portfolio

Today I added a small initial stake in Mylan (MYL) to my portforlio. Note my trading activities are nowhere near large enough to effect stock prices.

I wrote a positive article about Mylan at Seeking Alpha, Mylan Pursues Global Generics Dominance Strategy, back on September 6, 2013. The price is way up since then.  I now wish I had bought MYL back then.

Still, today's price in the $52 range is well off the 52 week high of $57.52. If it goes cheaper (without good reason) I'll buy more when the opportunity arises.

Mylan is a large cap (near $20 billion) company that manufactures and markets generic drugs. I am better known for writing and investing in small caps like Dot Hill, Adept Technologies, and Inovio. But most of my portfolio is in middle and large cap stocks.

While I don't plan to write another article on Mylan anytime soon, I am covering their analyst conferences, and your are always welcome to read my summaries at:

Mylan analyst conference call summaries

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Dot Hill Declines Despite Strong Q4 Results

Dot Hill is down over 19% so far today despite strong Q4 results. Hill was (in my view) clearly undervalued and overlooked as late as January of 2014, when it could be bought in the $3 range. But then momentum players and sell-side (Wall-Street brokerage house) analysts got wind of its success, driving it to a 52-week high of $6.06 yesterday.

My last article at Seeking Alpha on Dot Hill was: Nearly Quadrupling In 2013, Dot Hill Still Has 2X Potential In 2014 posted on December 29. I meant double by the end of 2014, not by March. Of course all stock prices are dependent on actual ability to generate profits, which is notoriously hard to predict.

Given that the 52-week low is still $0.9125 (March 15, 2013), only the most idiotic momentum players got burned. I still think $6 to $7 per share by the end of 2014 is not unreasonable, unless something goes wrong on the execution side. There is upside to that if more clients (OEMs who resell HILL's storage equipment) sign up in time to ramp some revenue in 2014.

The details are worth paying attention to, so start with my summary of the quarter and the analyst call today:

Dot Hill Q4 2013 Results and Conference Call notes

There are a lot of interesting comments on the data storage industry in general in the call, including on Lenovo's purchase of IBM's server business.

I am a long-term holder of HILL. Due to its run up in 2013 it is currently my largest holding. I reserve the right to buy more if the price drops enough, and to sell some of my holdings if I think it has become overvalued. I also own some Seagate stock, the disk drive maker.

Be sure to check the SEC filings and make sure you understand the company before buying.

Keep diversified!