Thursday, April 30, 2015

I buy some Celgene

I took advantage of today's sale to increase my Celgene (CELG) stake by 12.5%, buying at $107.20.

My last prior trade in Celgene was selling 20% of my stake at $118.59 on December 8, 2014, mainly because I had reached my portfolio limit as the price increased.

I first invested in Celgene on May 4, 2009.

Celgene released results today. You can look at my Celgene Q1 analyst conference notes.

I think the company is doing fine, it stuck to 2015 guidance, and anyone buying today at any reasonable price will be very happy come 2017, if not sooner. The potential of Revlimid sales is astonishing, and the pipeline is very, very impressive.

My trades are way to small to influence the market price for more than a millisecond, especially on large cap stocks like Celgene.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Almost Bought Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

As I continued my quest to research most of the Biotechnology companies, starting with those in the IBB, I got to Alnylam (ALNY) over a week ago. Then earnings season got underway, and it took me some time to finish up the research and write my opinion, which you can find at:

Is Alnylam In 2020 Worth $9 Billion Now?

I concluded I should buy some ALNY, though there is considerable risk due to the high market capitalization for a development-stage company, as high or higher as some companies with products already approved by the FDA and generating income.

Biotechnology stocks sold off on Monday, and when I looked at Alnylam this morning, after Seeking Alpha published my article it was further down, well below where it was when I started my research (at which time the market cap was $10 billion).

I decided to buy, but did not actually hit the button. After all, I have limited cash, and what goes to ALNY can't go to something else. In particular Seattle Genetics (SGEN) is reporting Q1 results on Thursday. I own a little bit of SGEN, and would like more. And then there others ...

So I'm going to try to not hit the Buy button until earnings season is over and I can make a rational decision about where to put cash to use, or to hold it.

I don't believe that biotechnology stocks are over priced in general, but it has gotten harder these last few years to find undervalued ones. I do occasionally sell parts of my positions when I think a particular stock has gotten frothy, and also when a stock has done so well that it has become too big of a part of my portfolio. That is where the cash comes from.

Biotechnology is perfect for buy and hold. In the longer run most of this class of company will turn pipelines into commercial therapies, and money. In the short run they can fluctuate drastically. When the Fed or Goldman or whoever screams sell, I usually wait until I like the prices, and then I buy. But not today.

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Intuitive Surgical, Alexion, Agenus and Amgen

Busy week, lots of companies I follow reported earnings and had their analyst conferences.

I was able to write only one new article for Seeking Alpha:

Intuitive Surgical Returns to Growth, Sort of

ISRG is getting its footing back, but I wonder if it can ever get back to being a high-growth biotechnology company. It is no longer building on a small base, and its sales seem to be constrained by the capital equipment budgets of national health systems and U.S. private hospital chains. It could benefit if the European economy finally picks up. Lots of cash at Intuitive, maybe it is time to pay a dividend?

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (see Alexion Q1 2015 analyst call notes) still might seem overpriced to the traditional investor, but I can see the future pipeline, and it is river of profits.

Agenus is one of the new kids on the block. This year it should see first revenues from one or two vaccines it has a component in. It has a bunch of partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies. It is a stock for investors who are patient: the big money may be three to five years away. But with a market capitalization of roughly a half billion, and the five year market cap likely to be more like 10 billion (if more things go right than wrong), who can complain about waiting 5 years for their money to 20X? See Agenus Q1 2015 analyst call notes

Finally we have Amgen, the Old Boy of the biotechnology crowd, but recently renewed by focusing on the future pipeline. Safe, pays a dividend, and has strong growth potential, if you are a beginner Amgen Should be the Cornerstone of your Biotechnology portfolio. See also my Amgen Q1 2015 notes

Hope your week was as good as mine!

Keep diversified!

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Q1 Earnings: Seagate, Amgen, Intuitive Surgical, Illumina

It's a busy time, and I'm behind!

New from me at Seeking Alpha: Seagate Likely to Underperform. But if you want an IT tech stock dividend, it does not get much better than STX.

I don't own Seagate anymore. I do own Amgen (AMGN), and things look good there, as you can see from my notes on the Amgen Q1 2015 analyst conference.

Illumina (ILMN) is doing well as a business, but doing well seems to be priced in already; high P/Es always bring the danger that something will go wrong. See Illumina Q1 2015 analyst conference.

Next I am planning to listen to the Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) conference, which took place yesterday afternoon, so likely by the time you try this link will have my full notes: Intuitive Surgical Q1 2015 analyst call.

So far earnings season has been pretty good for me. Hopefully for you too.

Keep Diversified!

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Intel Q1 2015

You can read my appraisal of Intel at Seeking Alpha:

Intel Q1 was a Dinosaur Egg

You can also see my notes on the Intel Q1 2015 analyst conference.

It's interesting how at Seeking Alpha my most profitable articles tend to get ignored, but if I write about a company like Intel I get far more page views (Seeking Alpha pays me by the page view). Just for instance, anyone who has been following my series on Dot Hill (See my main Dot Hill page for links) and taken a chance buying HILL has done far better than anyone who has invested in Intel (INTC) lately. Of course, I do a lot of educated guessing, so I do guess wrong once in a while. So be careful, think for yourself, and

Keep Diversified!

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Biotechnology: Medivation, Opexa

Playing catch up, and with Intel reporting today I'll start listening to analyst conferences and putting up notes at, though I would advise if you are really interested in investing in stocks, that you take the time to listen to the conferences yourself (links are available on the investor web page for each company). On my agenda are AMD reporting on Thursday, Intuitive Surgical and Amgen next Tuesday, then a whole slew of technology and biotechnology companies.

I had another article published at Seeking Alpha:

Medivation Looks Strong For 2015-2016

While I am positive on Medivation, I have not bought any yet. With limited cash and a whole bunch more biotechnology stocks to research, I am holding my fire.

I did add significantly to my Opexa (OPXA) position last week. This is an investigational stage company that has had trouble raising cash. I bought at $0.50 and it is already down to $0.45. Oh well, I think they have enough cash to last until Phase 2 data for their multiple sclerosis treatment comes in 2016. If the results are positive, they will have to raise more cash, but the stock should be up quite nicely. Highly risky. Don't say I didn't tell you so. Most of my money is in safer biotechs, notably Gilead.

Keep diversified!

Monday, April 6, 2015

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Glycomimetics

As I continue to spade through the IBB, looking for something that will help my portfolio continue to outperform the IBB, my latest report:

Jazz Pharmaceuticals Could Be A Buy, Depending on Your Investment Strategy

I don't own JAZZ, but have added it to my watch list.

Last week I bought an initial small position in a highly speculative micro-cap, Glycomimetics (GLYC). It is down a bit since I bought it. It had its IPO in 2014, then ran into a delay by its partner Pfizer in the initiation of a Phase III trial for its leading candidate, Rivipansel. I expect the stock to catch a bounce if patient enrollment in the trial is announced. If Pfizer backs out, it will likely go significantly lower. I am not recommending GLYC to anyone, but I may start publishing research on it (time permitting). I will likely buy more over time opportunistically, if facts warrant that.

I am very much looking forward to earnings season kicking off this month. My big question is: how did Gilead (GILD) do? You can find my reports on quarter results and analyst conferences at: