Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Seattle Genetics Coverage

I have a new article at SeekingAlpha:

Seattle Genetics: The Long View

I have been aware of Seattle Genetics for quite some time, and began taking notes in September 2014. You can see my complete notes at William Meyers Seattle Genetics notes

And here's the link to Seattle Genetics home page.

I have not been putting new money into the market. I have been shifting out of IT stocks and into smaller biotechnology stocks, having had so much success with Gilead, Biogen-Idec, Celgene, Amgen, and Regeneron.

This is not financial advise, just a commentary on my own journalism and investing activities.

Keep diversified!

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Seattle Genetics; Akamai

In my ongoing shift from IT to biotechnology stocks, I am dropping coverage of Akamai. This is not a reflection on the company. I once owned AKAM and did well with it. I have not owned it for a couple of years.

On the other hand I bought some Seattle Genetics (SGEN). This is a speculative buy. I am more impressed by their pipeline and platform than by the revenue from their one approved drug so far. I would guess that 2016 would be the earliest this investment could pay off substantially, as guidance for 2015 is for moderate growth. The thing to watch in 2015 is pipeline progress. You can check out my notes, Seattle Genetics Q4 2014 analyst call for more details.

Also, I hope to write Seeking Alpha articles on SGEN and AMGN, but can't say how soon. This afternoon I will be listening to the Applied Materials (AMAT) conference and taking notes.

Disclosure: I do not own AKAM. I own SGEN, AMGN, and AMAT.

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Dot Hill, Adept Technology

I own and like data storage equipment maker Dot Hill (HILL), but wrote an article for Seeking Alpha in which I tried to be objective about both the opportunity and the reasons it might not work out:

Dot Hill's Q1 Guidance Will be Critical

As to Adept Technology, I want to emphasize that I don't dislike their technology or management. What I disliked was the run up of the stock price far past any reasonable valuation. To justify the valuation before yesterday's earnings report would have required a substantial climb in revenue, but instead there was a substantial decline in Q4. So the stock price plunged today. I did not even listen to the analyst call once I saw the press release. So if you want Q4 results you might as well go to the Adept Technology Q4  2014 press release.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

I buy Alexion

This is just to note that this morning I bought my first shares of Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) for $175.12 per share.

I have had an eye on Alexion for a long time and wrote several articles on Alexion published by Seeking Alpha. I have been particularly interested since last week's earnings report (See my  Alexion Q4 2014 analyst call notes).

Today seems to be a biotechnology sell-off day, as those who trade frequently sell their biotech winnings to buy oil companies and futures. Fine. Of course Alexion could go down further, but my eye is on the prize in 2016. By then Asfotase Alpha sales should be ramping and we may see a clearer trajectory for the further reaches of the pipeline.

As earnings have ramped and the price come off highs, Alexion's P/E ratio has come off earlier levels, but it is still something to keep in mind. A stall in earnings growth could mean big losses for investors. Such a stall could come from European health programs putting pressures on Alexion over the high prices of its therapies.

The main reason for this short entry is that now that I own some ALXN, I may not be able to maintain the level of objectivity I like to have when I analyze a stock.

Keep diversified!