Sunday, July 26, 2015

Buying flurry: Dot Hill, Star Bulk, Ocata Therapeutics, Acceleron, Biogen

It is earnings season so I am very busy, so I am behind in updating followers on my trades.

If you want to read the notes I make on the analyst conferences of the stocks I follow, you can find a list of the stocks with links at: Meyers Analyst Conference List

I only sold once stock lately, a bit of my Celgene (CELG) stock, because I had bought some extra when it dipped and then it went back up and exceeded my portfolio limit rules. My last two trades were buying on April 30, 2015 at $107.20 and then selling the same amount on July 15, 2015 for $132.99. Of course Celgene has risen since then, so I am fairly near my portfolio limit of 10% of any stock for Celgene. Check out Seeking Alpha for my Celgene articles.

I also added shares of Dot Hill (HILL) to my existing holdings at $6.28 on June 26, 2015 and at $5.67 on July 7, 2015. Dot Hill continues to do well with sales of its data storage systems and so I would not be surprised at another record year and the stock heading to $8.

I bought some Star Bulk (SBLK) on July 16, 2015 for $2.99 because if the global economy revives a bit the demand for bulk shipping will too, and freight rates will hopefully come off their recent lows and reach levels that are profitable for shippers. It is off the beaten path for me and a risky investment because if rates stay low, it will continue to operate in the red.

On July 17, 2015 I bought an initial, tiny, position in Ocata Therapeutics (OCAT) pending further research.

On July 21, 2015 I bought an initial position in Acceleron (XLRN) because I was doing research for my article Accleron Has Two Potential Blockbusters for Seeking Alpha and I liked what I saw. Acceleron has a partnership with Celgene.

And finally, since I was quite cynical earlier in the year about Biogen's (BIIB) Alzheimer's early data, the updated data gave me a favorable impression. I have owned BIIB since 2009 or so, but well below my portfolio limit due to its high P/E ratio. So I bought more BIIB on July 24, 2015 for $306.96. True, by the end of the day it had fallen a bit lower, but consider that its 52-week high had been $480.18 back on March 20, 2015. Really, not that much has changed since March, it shows you how dependent day-to-day auction prices are on emotion.

My general strategy is that I am a long-term investor. I may sell a stock when it had done so well that it exceeds my portfolio limits, or when I have other reason to think it has become so over valued it is no longer a good long-term investment.

Keep diversified!

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Intel (INTC) Q2 summary and analysis

You can view my notes on the Intel (INTC) Q2 2015 results and analyst conference held earlier today as a supplement to this analysis. I don't own INTC and it is no longer my investment style, but I've been interested in computing for decades and follow Intel's doings with interest.

First order, Intel is seeing declining y/y revenue. In the quarter revenue was down 5% from year-earlier, to $13.2 billion. Most of this revenue decline was for PC (desktop, notebook, and mobile) chips. The datacenter group had revenue up 10% y/y as computing continued to migrate to the cloud.

Despite the decline Intel is highly profitable. In many cases its chips get little or no competition from AMD, the only other x86 architecture chip company. Net income was $2.7 billion, leading to EPS of $0.55, which was flat y/y.

Guidance was for a seasonal Q3, which means revenue up about 8%.

Intel is still doing its best to enter the mobile phone and tablet market, but is still losing money at that. It is also behind in technology. It is finally sampling a 4G phone chip. I don't see Intel ever being competitive in phones, but they are acting competitive, so I could be wrong. No other chip company could lose so much money just trying to get a toehold in a crowded, highly competitive space.

Intel also indicated there will be a delay in shrinking transistors to 10 nm. That might help AMD, but given that AMD is still stuck at 28 nm, it won't help much unless AMD announces 16 nm chips sooner rather than later. Given AMD's history, my guess would be later.

I see Intel as a dividend stock, not a growth stock. It is true the acquisition of specialty chip maker Altera (ALTR) will give Intel a revenue and profit boost when it is finalized, but I think Intel management is just as likely to screw up Altera as to give it a leg up on its traditional rival Xilinx (XLNX).

Before results were announced Intel closed at $29.69. At that price the dividend currently works out to 3.23%, which is pretty good. It might not look so good if the Federal Reserve even raised interest rates significantly.

Disclosure: I don't own INTC or ALTR. I do own AMD and XLNX.

Keep diversified!