Juno Therapeutics

When I sat down to write about Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) I thought it would take me about two hours. Instead I found it took about 8 hours, spread over a couple of weeks. Juno has the poorest web presentation of data of any biotechnology company I can remembering researching. Add to that that it has a number of therapies in Phase 1, each with poorly presented data, and the novelty of their platform (CAR-T) to me, and it was a struggle. You can read what I wrote at Seeking Alpha:

Juno Therapeutics: Celgene Partnership And CAR-T Pipeline Value

So far I have not bought any Juno stock, but I do own Celgene (CELG), which now owns a substantial amount of JUNO.

I last updated this blog on August 25. Since then I added to three of my positions, but nothing since 9/3/2015:

OCAT

SGEN

MCHP

You can find my basic analysis of Seattle Genetics and Microchip at Openicon and at Seeking Alpha. I haven't written about Ocata Therapeutics yet, but others have written about it at Seeking Alpha, and I'll get to it some day. September is a very busy month for me, so it is not actually on the schedule yet. Another stock I will write about soon is Agios (AGIO), which is another Celgene partner. I don't own any Agios at this time, but would be considering buying it at the time I do the research for the article.

My investment portfolio is so small that my buying or selling stock generally only affects the price for a few milliseconds.

Almost Bought Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

As I continued my quest to research most of the Biotechnology companies, starting with those in the IBB, I got to Alnylam (ALNY) over a week ago. Then earnings season got underway, and it took me some time to finish up the research and write my opinion, which you can find at:

Is Alnylam In 2020 Worth $9 Billion Now?

I concluded I should buy some ALNY, though there is considerable risk due to the high market capitalization for a development-stage company, as high or higher as some companies with products already approved by the FDA and generating income.

Biotechnology stocks sold off on Monday, and when I looked at Alnylam this morning, after Seeking Alpha published my article it was further down, well below where it was when I started my research (at which time the market cap was $10 billion).

I decided to buy, but did not actually hit the button. After all, I have limited cash, and what goes to ALNY can't go to something else. In particular Seattle Genetics (SGEN) is reporting Q1 results on Thursday. I own a little bit of SGEN, and would like more. And then there others ...

So I'm going to try to not hit the Buy button until earnings season is over and I can make a rational decision about where to put cash to use, or to hold it.

I don't believe that biotechnology stocks are over priced in general, but it has gotten harder these last few years to find undervalued ones. I do occasionally sell parts of my positions when I think a particular stock has gotten frothy, and also when a stock has done so well that it has become too big of a part of my portfolio. That is where the cash comes from.

Biotechnology is perfect for buy and hold. In the longer run most of this class of company will turn pipelines into commercial therapies, and money. In the short run they can fluctuate drastically. When the Fed or Goldman or whoever screams sell, I usually wait until I like the prices, and then I buy. But not today.

Seattle Genetics Coverage

I have a new article at SeekingAlpha:

Seattle Genetics: The Long View

I have been aware of Seattle Genetics for quite some time, and began taking notes in September 2014. You can see my complete notes at William Meyers Seattle Genetics notes

And here's the link to Seattle Genetics home page.

I have not been putting new money into the market. I have been shifting out of IT stocks and into smaller biotechnology stocks, having had so much success with Gilead, Biogen-Idec, Celgene, Amgen, and Regeneron.

This is not financial advise, just a commentary on my own journalism and investing activities.

Keep diversified!

Seattle Genetics; Akamai

In my ongoing shift from IT to biotechnology stocks, I am dropping coverage of Akamai. This is not a reflection on the company. I once owned AKAM and did well with it. I have not owned it for a couple of years.

On the other hand I bought some Seattle Genetics (SGEN). This is a speculative buy. I am more impressed by their pipeline and platform than by the revenue from their one approved drug so far. I would guess that 2016 would be the earliest this investment could pay off substantially, as guidance for 2015 is for moderate growth. The thing to watch in 2015 is pipeline progress. You can check out my notes, Seattle Genetics Q4 2014 analyst call for more details.

Also, I hope to write Seeking Alpha articles on SGEN and AMGN, but can't say how soon. This afternoon I will be listening to the Applied Materials (AMAT) conference and taking notes.

Disclosure: I do not own AKAM. I own SGEN, AMGN, and AMAT.

Bought Opexa, Merrimack

This is just to note that I added to my Opexa Therapeutics (OPXA) position yesterday because the stock price plunged after it withdrew an attempt to raise cash by selling shares. Clearly Opexa is a long way from FDA approval, but my guess is that cash will be found, so if clinical results remain positive some day, years from now, I'll wish I had bought more at this price. On the other hand it still represents far less than 1% of my portfolio, which is appropriate for such a risky stock.

I was researching Seattle Genetics (SGEN) and Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (MACK) to add to my coverage at http://www.openicon.com and to write about for Seeking Alpha. Look for articles, maybe, next week. I went ahead and bought a small position in MACK. Wish I had bought it a year ago! Since SGEN seems to have prices in a lot of pipeline success, I'll probably just add it to my watch list for now.

I'm a bit cash constrained. If Gilead (GILD) continues to rise I will at some point sell some to generate cash to diversify into smaller biotechnology stocks. Or maybe I'll buy myself a box of cigars and pretend that I am finally a Capitalist instead of a Worker.

I like Cyclacel (CYCC), and think it is vastly undervalued, but few people agree with me. Yet.