I own some ImmunoGen (IMGN) and some Juno Therapeutics (JUNO), both of which are small (under 1%) parts of my portfolio, since they are development-stage companies.
Yesterday I had my article on ImmunoGen published at Seeking Alpha:
ImmunoGen Oversold Despite Strong Pipeline
Yesterday Juno announced it had a trial suspended due to the deaths of 2 cancer patients. I had talked about that risk in my earlier Seeking Alpha article:
Juno Therapeutics: Celgene Partnership and CAR-T Pipeline Value
In one sense the market is overreacting to the news, but then Juno has quite a high market capitalization for a company that does not have approvable Phase 3 results for a therapy yet ($3 billion today, $4 billion yesterday).
ImmunoGen has a very small market cap, just above its cash balances, as I explained in my article. While considerable risk is certainly involved, the bounce to the small cap should be much bigger, if a therapy is approved, than the bounce to a company that already has success figured into its larger cap.
Most of my portfolio is in large cap biotechs that have large cash flows and extensive pipelines, like Gilead (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Biogen (BIIB) and Celgene (CELG).
I own quite a few small cap and even nano-cap stocks, but only one makes up a substantial part of my portfolio at present, Inovio (INO). That is because I bought a lot of INO cheap before other investors discovered it. I am of course hoping ImmunoGen will give my portfolio a similar boost. But keep in mind it took years for INO to get to where it is today.
My typical investment horizon is 3 to 5 years. Most investors, whether individuals or institutions, don't seem to be able to think that far ahead. It works for me.
Keep Diversified!
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Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Friday, July 8, 2016
Thursday, January 22, 2009
2009 Investment Plan
Today earnings seasons starts for me, with reports and analyst conferences scheduled for AMD and Intuitive Surgical. This column will be mainly comments on company reports and forecasts for the next couple of months. Before that starts I want to get this column in on my investment strategy.
Like most investors I took a bath in 2008, but for me it was not too bad. I wasted my youth writing vampire novels that did not sell, so I only recently grew up and became an investor. My main asset is my house. It still has a mortgage, but I have been diligently paying it off for years now, and that has been my best investment. I have a fair amount of cash in CDs, which is a necessity because I work freelance and my wife's PeacefulJewelry business has irregular cash flow too.
But I own some stocks and in 2008 I bought more. Almost all the stocks I own have lost value (if I had to sell them at today's auction rate) since I bought them, the notable exception being biotechnology stocks like Gilead and Biogen. But I believe that the current auction market on stocks has vastly underpriced good companies.
So in 2009 I intend, when I have cash to spare, to continue to buy stocks at bargain prices as long as they last. It is tempting to buy real estate too, at these prices and interest rates, but that is a bigger commitment.
I see no reason to buy bonds at these high prices. I think the risk that the U.S. Government won't be able to pay its obligations has become roughly equivalent to the risk of a serious depression. It is a small risk, so I also don't see bond prices going any higher. So with bonds you won't make money from dividends, and you won't make money on the pricing either.
The next time stocks are high and bonds are low (because interest rates are high) I plan to make a foray into bonds. After that I will maintain a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
If you follow this blog, you know what I like in a stock: good technology, good management, and a commitment to bringing in the cash. I might acquire more of the stocks I have, I'll probably add a few new ones in 2009. I won't add too many because doing good research for a large portfolio is time-consuming.
What is right for me may not be right for you. Every stock is different, just like every real-estate indvestment is different. Often general advice turns out to be bad advice for a specific investment.
Spend less than you make (personal financial tipping point 1), and you really can't go wrong.
And keep diversified!
Like most investors I took a bath in 2008, but for me it was not too bad. I wasted my youth writing vampire novels that did not sell, so I only recently grew up and became an investor. My main asset is my house. It still has a mortgage, but I have been diligently paying it off for years now, and that has been my best investment. I have a fair amount of cash in CDs, which is a necessity because I work freelance and my wife's PeacefulJewelry business has irregular cash flow too.
But I own some stocks and in 2008 I bought more. Almost all the stocks I own have lost value (if I had to sell them at today's auction rate) since I bought them, the notable exception being biotechnology stocks like Gilead and Biogen. But I believe that the current auction market on stocks has vastly underpriced good companies.
So in 2009 I intend, when I have cash to spare, to continue to buy stocks at bargain prices as long as they last. It is tempting to buy real estate too, at these prices and interest rates, but that is a bigger commitment.
I see no reason to buy bonds at these high prices. I think the risk that the U.S. Government won't be able to pay its obligations has become roughly equivalent to the risk of a serious depression. It is a small risk, so I also don't see bond prices going any higher. So with bonds you won't make money from dividends, and you won't make money on the pricing either.
The next time stocks are high and bonds are low (because interest rates are high) I plan to make a foray into bonds. After that I will maintain a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds.
If you follow this blog, you know what I like in a stock: good technology, good management, and a commitment to bringing in the cash. I might acquire more of the stocks I have, I'll probably add a few new ones in 2009. I won't add too many because doing good research for a large portfolio is time-consuming.
What is right for me may not be right for you. Every stock is different, just like every real-estate indvestment is different. Often general advice turns out to be bad advice for a specific investment.
Spend less than you make (personal financial tipping point 1), and you really can't go wrong.
And keep diversified!
Friday, October 10, 2008
America For Sale
This week we are seeing the largest turnover in the ownership of American corporations since the Great Depression.
We know who the people (and institutions) that are selling undervalued stocks are. They are people who are panicking, and people who have no choice because the stocks they are selling are their only source of cash to pay their debts on losses in mortgage-related securities.
But who is buying? Every sale requires a buyer. I don't have the best vantage point, but it sure looks to me like it is mainly petroleum cash coming into the market. I don't mean commodities investors fleeing the popping oil bubble (which I first wrote about back in Oil Bubble to Burst, on March 11, 2008). I mean the actual oil producers, mainly Arab nations, that have accumulated vast amounts of dollars (and Euros) that had not yet been invested.
Back in the 1980's we worried that the Japanese would end up owning the United States. They bought into U.S corporations, but mainly they bought land and buildings. In the short run they created a mini-bubble and got hurt, but those that kept their American real estate did well long-term.
Do I care that Arabs are going to own substantial portions of America's economy? No, it is part of the global economy. Only a few decades ago U.S. corporations owned much of Arabian oil production. The Arabs are not just lucky to have a lot of oil. They have worked hard, for decades, to develop their production capacity and their financial knowledge. They know the oil will run out eventually, so they are investing much of their returns, rather than spending them (not that they don't have plenty to spend, too).
Americans, as a whole, have been way too busy spending money and way too careless about making it. I think most Americans work reasonably hard, they just don't worry about the future enough to be bothered to save or invest. Some of us save, but we are more than balanced by the spendthrifts.
Today it looks like the future belongs to the Arabs, and maybe the Indians and Chinese. These United States of America are probably good for a comeback, but only if we create an economy that is not dependent on giving credit to spendthrifts to keep going.
We know who the people (and institutions) that are selling undervalued stocks are. They are people who are panicking, and people who have no choice because the stocks they are selling are their only source of cash to pay their debts on losses in mortgage-related securities.
But who is buying? Every sale requires a buyer. I don't have the best vantage point, but it sure looks to me like it is mainly petroleum cash coming into the market. I don't mean commodities investors fleeing the popping oil bubble (which I first wrote about back in Oil Bubble to Burst, on March 11, 2008). I mean the actual oil producers, mainly Arab nations, that have accumulated vast amounts of dollars (and Euros) that had not yet been invested.
Back in the 1980's we worried that the Japanese would end up owning the United States. They bought into U.S corporations, but mainly they bought land and buildings. In the short run they created a mini-bubble and got hurt, but those that kept their American real estate did well long-term.
Do I care that Arabs are going to own substantial portions of America's economy? No, it is part of the global economy. Only a few decades ago U.S. corporations owned much of Arabian oil production. The Arabs are not just lucky to have a lot of oil. They have worked hard, for decades, to develop their production capacity and their financial knowledge. They know the oil will run out eventually, so they are investing much of their returns, rather than spending them (not that they don't have plenty to spend, too).
Americans, as a whole, have been way too busy spending money and way too careless about making it. I think most Americans work reasonably hard, they just don't worry about the future enough to be bothered to save or invest. Some of us save, but we are more than balanced by the spendthrifts.
Today it looks like the future belongs to the Arabs, and maybe the Indians and Chinese. These United States of America are probably good for a comeback, but only if we create an economy that is not dependent on giving credit to spendthrifts to keep going.
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