I've been busy, even as earnings reports start heating up this week from Intuitive Surgical, Intel, Biogen, and AMD. So all I'll do here is provide links to my latest Seeking Alpha Articles:
Celldex Set to Bounce Back
I'm Accumulating Bind Therapeutics
To get to my coverage of analyst conferences for the stocks I cover, go to:
Openicon Calendar
Showing posts with label amd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label amd. Show all posts
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals and Onivyde
Beginning the week with a new article at Seeking Alpha:
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Should Drive Higher In 2016 On Onivyde And Pipeline
I must admit I was a bit dubious about Merrimack when I first came across it in the distant past. I took a long time and did quite a bit of research before initially investing in September of 2014. The stock is down, since then (I bought at $7.97), but the progress has been great. I think MACK is a huge bargain at this point, though not without it risks.
This afternoon AMD reports Q4 earnings. I don't expect anything spectacular, but I do hope for some optimism about 2016. AMD is one of my few remaining semiconductor stocks. Almost my entire portfolio is in biotechnology now.
I am a journalist & investor. I try to be honest and pick good stocks for my own portfolio, but that does not mean my portfolio is right for you, nor is any individual stock.
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Should Drive Higher In 2016 On Onivyde And Pipeline
I must admit I was a bit dubious about Merrimack when I first came across it in the distant past. I took a long time and did quite a bit of research before initially investing in September of 2014. The stock is down, since then (I bought at $7.97), but the progress has been great. I think MACK is a huge bargain at this point, though not without it risks.
This afternoon AMD reports Q4 earnings. I don't expect anything spectacular, but I do hope for some optimism about 2016. AMD is one of my few remaining semiconductor stocks. Almost my entire portfolio is in biotechnology now.
I am a journalist & investor. I try to be honest and pick good stocks for my own portfolio, but that does not mean my portfolio is right for you, nor is any individual stock.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Intel (INTC) Q2 summary and analysis
You can view my notes on the Intel (INTC) Q2 2015 results and analyst conference held earlier today as a supplement to this analysis. I don't own INTC and it is no longer my investment style, but I've been interested in computing for decades and follow Intel's doings with interest.
First order, Intel is seeing declining y/y revenue. In the quarter revenue was down 5% from year-earlier, to $13.2 billion. Most of this revenue decline was for PC (desktop, notebook, and mobile) chips. The datacenter group had revenue up 10% y/y as computing continued to migrate to the cloud.
Despite the decline Intel is highly profitable. In many cases its chips get little or no competition from AMD, the only other x86 architecture chip company. Net income was $2.7 billion, leading to EPS of $0.55, which was flat y/y.
Guidance was for a seasonal Q3, which means revenue up about 8%.
Intel is still doing its best to enter the mobile phone and tablet market, but is still losing money at that. It is also behind in technology. It is finally sampling a 4G phone chip. I don't see Intel ever being competitive in phones, but they are acting competitive, so I could be wrong. No other chip company could lose so much money just trying to get a toehold in a crowded, highly competitive space.
Intel also indicated there will be a delay in shrinking transistors to 10 nm. That might help AMD, but given that AMD is still stuck at 28 nm, it won't help much unless AMD announces 16 nm chips sooner rather than later. Given AMD's history, my guess would be later.
I see Intel as a dividend stock, not a growth stock. It is true the acquisition of specialty chip maker Altera (ALTR) will give Intel a revenue and profit boost when it is finalized, but I think Intel management is just as likely to screw up Altera as to give it a leg up on its traditional rival Xilinx (XLNX).
Before results were announced Intel closed at $29.69. At that price the dividend currently works out to 3.23%, which is pretty good. It might not look so good if the Federal Reserve even raised interest rates significantly.
Disclosure: I don't own INTC or ALTR. I do own AMD and XLNX.
Keep diversified!
First order, Intel is seeing declining y/y revenue. In the quarter revenue was down 5% from year-earlier, to $13.2 billion. Most of this revenue decline was for PC (desktop, notebook, and mobile) chips. The datacenter group had revenue up 10% y/y as computing continued to migrate to the cloud.
Despite the decline Intel is highly profitable. In many cases its chips get little or no competition from AMD, the only other x86 architecture chip company. Net income was $2.7 billion, leading to EPS of $0.55, which was flat y/y.
Guidance was for a seasonal Q3, which means revenue up about 8%.
Intel is still doing its best to enter the mobile phone and tablet market, but is still losing money at that. It is also behind in technology. It is finally sampling a 4G phone chip. I don't see Intel ever being competitive in phones, but they are acting competitive, so I could be wrong. No other chip company could lose so much money just trying to get a toehold in a crowded, highly competitive space.
Intel also indicated there will be a delay in shrinking transistors to 10 nm. That might help AMD, but given that AMD is still stuck at 28 nm, it won't help much unless AMD announces 16 nm chips sooner rather than later. Given AMD's history, my guess would be later.
I see Intel as a dividend stock, not a growth stock. It is true the acquisition of specialty chip maker Altera (ALTR) will give Intel a revenue and profit boost when it is finalized, but I think Intel management is just as likely to screw up Altera as to give it a leg up on its traditional rival Xilinx (XLNX).
Before results were announced Intel closed at $29.69. At that price the dividend currently works out to 3.23%, which is pretty good. It might not look so good if the Federal Reserve even raised interest rates significantly.
Disclosure: I don't own INTC or ALTR. I do own AMD and XLNX.
Keep diversified!
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Inovio Interview, AMD Buy
I spoke at length to Dr. Joseph Kim, CEO of Inovio (INO) on Friday the 12th, about dMAb (DNA monoclonal antibody) technology.
dMAb showed promise in mice and is about to enter its first human tests. Note that Inovio has several clinical trials completed for its DNA vaccines, and may advance to its first Phase 3 trial later this year.
You can find my explanation of dMAb and its potential at Seeking Alpha:
Inovio's dMAb Technology [June 17, 2015]
I am hoping to resume my extension of coverage to more biotechnology companies by working my way through the IBB holdings, but I cannot promise when the next report will appear. Follow me at Seeking Alpha or here to keep up.
After watching AMD's presentation yesterday of its new graphics cards I considerably enlarged my AMD holdings. I like the new memory technology, but I do wish they had gone ahead and jumped to 20 nm or 16 nm technology. AMD looks cheap right now, but it could go down further short term because Q2 results are likely to be pretty bad. However, with the introduction of Windows 10 and the new graphics cards and the usual back-to-school and run up to the holidays, I expect Q3 will make AMD look a lot better. We won't know, of course, until October.
Keep in mind that I don't recommend stocks. One thing I do is technology journalism, and I disclose my own investing so readers can know what biases I might have. (I own Inovio too).
Keep diversified!
dMAb showed promise in mice and is about to enter its first human tests. Note that Inovio has several clinical trials completed for its DNA vaccines, and may advance to its first Phase 3 trial later this year.
You can find my explanation of dMAb and its potential at Seeking Alpha:
Inovio's dMAb Technology [June 17, 2015]
I am hoping to resume my extension of coverage to more biotechnology companies by working my way through the IBB holdings, but I cannot promise when the next report will appear. Follow me at Seeking Alpha or here to keep up.
After watching AMD's presentation yesterday of its new graphics cards I considerably enlarged my AMD holdings. I like the new memory technology, but I do wish they had gone ahead and jumped to 20 nm or 16 nm technology. AMD looks cheap right now, but it could go down further short term because Q2 results are likely to be pretty bad. However, with the introduction of Windows 10 and the new graphics cards and the usual back-to-school and run up to the holidays, I expect Q3 will make AMD look a lot better. We won't know, of course, until October.
Keep in mind that I don't recommend stocks. One thing I do is technology journalism, and I disclose my own investing so readers can know what biases I might have. (I own Inovio too).
Keep diversified!
Friday, January 23, 2015
Back to blogging: AMD, XLNX
Well I haven't added to this blog for about a month. I had to focus on a project for an IT client. Turned it in yesterday.
So now I am trying to catch up on earnings season.
In the meantime I had good news on two fronts. Agenus announced another deal, this time with Incyte. Agenus remains one of my top picks for future growth.
Also Dot Hill firmed up its December quarter guidance. The stock shot up, and has been gradually declining as those who can't wait for what is likely to be a brilliant 2015 have been cashing in their gains.
I have posted my notes on three companies' quarter results calls:
Intel Q4 2014 analyst conference
AMD Q4 2014 analyst conference
Xilinx fiscal Q3 analyst conference
As I catch up on results from companies I follow, I'll start posting some analysis, as usual.
So now I am trying to catch up on earnings season.
In the meantime I had good news on two fronts. Agenus announced another deal, this time with Incyte. Agenus remains one of my top picks for future growth.
Also Dot Hill firmed up its December quarter guidance. The stock shot up, and has been gradually declining as those who can't wait for what is likely to be a brilliant 2015 have been cashing in their gains.
I have posted my notes on three companies' quarter results calls:
Intel Q4 2014 analyst conference
AMD Q4 2014 analyst conference
Xilinx fiscal Q3 analyst conference
As I catch up on results from companies I follow, I'll start posting some analysis, as usual.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Intel thoughts
Newest Seeking Alpha Article:
Intel Expiring or Renewing with Mobile and Cloud?
See my other: notes and posts on Intel
Note my worst performing stock that I nevertheless still have in my portfolio is Intel sort-of competitor AMD. My other AMD notes and posts.
The argument about Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and the various ARM chip makers will go on ad-infinitum. Want to get some hits on Seeking Alpha, write about something the techno investors feel they know enough to argue about. Is my opinion special? No, not really. But I already knew how to program when Intel introduced its first CPU ship in 1971. I have seen the demise of many companies, and I have seen IBM survive, to my surprise (my first computer was an IBM mainframe at university).
I don't give financial advice, but my own holdings have shifted from being mostly computer technology to mostly biotechnology over the past 10 years. And that worked out better than any one particular computer stock has for me.
I don't own Intel (INTC), but if I did I would likely hold it for the dividend and any ongoing upside to its general business.
Intel Expiring or Renewing with Mobile and Cloud?
See my other: notes and posts on Intel
Note my worst performing stock that I nevertheless still have in my portfolio is Intel sort-of competitor AMD. My other AMD notes and posts.
The argument about Intel, AMD, Nvidia, and the various ARM chip makers will go on ad-infinitum. Want to get some hits on Seeking Alpha, write about something the techno investors feel they know enough to argue about. Is my opinion special? No, not really. But I already knew how to program when Intel introduced its first CPU ship in 1971. I have seen the demise of many companies, and I have seen IBM survive, to my surprise (my first computer was an IBM mainframe at university).
I don't give financial advice, but my own holdings have shifted from being mostly computer technology to mostly biotechnology over the past 10 years. And that worked out better than any one particular computer stock has for me.
I don't own Intel (INTC), but if I did I would likely hold it for the dividend and any ongoing upside to its general business.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
AMD woes and wishes
I had an article published at Seeking Alpha about AMD's third quarter results and prospects:
AMD Seasonality Does Not Imply Failure
You can also see my notes on the Thursday, October 16 AMD analyst conference
AMD remains problematic. The company is the only competitor to Intel and Nvidia, and so keeps them from overcharging consumers. But the benefits to AMD investors have been non-existent for years. I own AMD stock, but it has been a serious drag on my portfolio.
One interesting thing about writing for Seeking Alpha is that AMD is the subject of intense interest there. This has to be because the online community recognizes AMD as one of the two PC CPU makers. So far (5 PM Pacific Time) there are 31 comments on the article. My typical article, which would be far more valuable to investors, gets just 3 to 5 comments. The first commenter is Ashraf Eassa, who I first saw as a Seeking Alpha writer, who had long pushed Intel and bashed AMD, and who graduated (if you can call it that) to be a regular columnist for Motley Fool. All I am saying is, based on a limited sample, that there is no correspondence between the number of comments at Seeking Alpha and the performance of the stock commented on.
This week and next week I will be covering mostly biotechnology stocks. Illumina reported record results yesterday, Intuitive Surgical reported earlier today, tomorrow morning Biogen Idec reports.
AMD Seasonality Does Not Imply Failure
You can also see my notes on the Thursday, October 16 AMD analyst conference
AMD remains problematic. The company is the only competitor to Intel and Nvidia, and so keeps them from overcharging consumers. But the benefits to AMD investors have been non-existent for years. I own AMD stock, but it has been a serious drag on my portfolio.
One interesting thing about writing for Seeking Alpha is that AMD is the subject of intense interest there. This has to be because the online community recognizes AMD as one of the two PC CPU makers. So far (5 PM Pacific Time) there are 31 comments on the article. My typical article, which would be far more valuable to investors, gets just 3 to 5 comments. The first commenter is Ashraf Eassa, who I first saw as a Seeking Alpha writer, who had long pushed Intel and bashed AMD, and who graduated (if you can call it that) to be a regular columnist for Motley Fool. All I am saying is, based on a limited sample, that there is no correspondence between the number of comments at Seeking Alpha and the performance of the stock commented on.
This week and next week I will be covering mostly biotechnology stocks. Illumina reported record results yesterday, Intuitive Surgical reported earlier today, tomorrow morning Biogen Idec reports.
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Bought more AMD
Just to note that I bought more AMD. I bought the same number of share I sold on 7/16 for $4.72 for $3.23. AMD reports on the 16th and I'll report on that at www.openicon.com/confsums/amd_main.html.
I believe AMD is a risky stock, but that sales of chips for Xbox and PlayStation should keep it going until its new lines of chips for servers becomes available in 2015. On the downside recently AMD is lowering prices on its graphics card chips (during the crucial holiday season) due to a new cycle of competition from Nvidia, which will likely continue until AMD releases its next round of graphics chips.
AMD represents roughly 3% of my tiny portfolio today. My largest holding is Gilead Sciences (GILD), which has broken my portfolio rules and now is about 15% of my portfolio, but I am holding it anyway in anticipation of rapid further appreciation.
I believe AMD is a risky stock, but that sales of chips for Xbox and PlayStation should keep it going until its new lines of chips for servers becomes available in 2015. On the downside recently AMD is lowering prices on its graphics card chips (during the crucial holiday season) due to a new cycle of competition from Nvidia, which will likely continue until AMD releases its next round of graphics chips.
AMD represents roughly 3% of my tiny portfolio today. My largest holding is Gilead Sciences (GILD), which has broken my portfolio rules and now is about 15% of my portfolio, but I am holding it anyway in anticipation of rapid further appreciation.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Dot Hill, Nvidia analyst conferences
"For every sad fly, there is a happy spider"
Two interesting things happened this week near me.
Dot Hill (HILL) barely met prior guidance for Q2, and investors were hoping a slew of new customers for Dot Hill's advanced storage systems would bring in results well above guidance. The stock took a major hit following the Thursday morning Dot Hill results release and analyst conference (my notes).
The main issue in the quarter was a particular customer, typically Dot Hill's second largest, bought fairly little in the quarter. This customer services large datacenter installations, and revenue variance each quarter is significant. Dot Hill believes the customers orders will resume.
In addition, July bookings have been strong, and 4 customers are likely to release major new Dot Hill based storage systems before the end of the year. Q2 was back-end loaded, so a fair amount of product went out at the end of the quarter that will book revenue in Q3.
So what did I do? I bought more HILL yesterday, basically buying back the shares I sold in March for $5.88 per share for just $3.51. Most of my shares I bought long ago for between $1 and $2 per share.
Of course Dot Hill management could be wrong, revenue and profits might not ramp in Q3 and Q4 and on into 2015. But I think it is likely they will, and Dot Hill will be far more valuable by mid 2015 than it is today. However, keep in mind that Dot Hill has disappointed in the past. Being a small-cap data storage provider is a difficult business.
The Nvidia Q2 conference seemed like it would provide no surprises until, near the end, an analyst asked about the bitcoin computing phenomena that had raised rival AMD's results in Q4 and Q1, but then hurt them when demand dropped off in Q2.
CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said why Nvidia GPU's were typically not used for bitcoin mining, or cryptocurrency in general. AMD's GPUs provide more performance per dollar. Mr. Huang argued extensively earlier in the conference (and in prior conferences) that because of its installed base and superior software, Nvidia GeForce GPU's are gamers' favorites. Maybe so, but it appears to be a well known fact in the computational community that if you want a lot of computation for your buck you want to go with AMD. The reality is that certain workloads do better with Nvidia's architecture, and certain workloads do better with AMD. I see this all the time, even within games, with some games getting better benchmarks with AMD, others doing better with Nvidia, assuming the same pricing range.
Two interesting things happened this week near me.
Dot Hill (HILL) barely met prior guidance for Q2, and investors were hoping a slew of new customers for Dot Hill's advanced storage systems would bring in results well above guidance. The stock took a major hit following the Thursday morning Dot Hill results release and analyst conference (my notes).
The main issue in the quarter was a particular customer, typically Dot Hill's second largest, bought fairly little in the quarter. This customer services large datacenter installations, and revenue variance each quarter is significant. Dot Hill believes the customers orders will resume.
In addition, July bookings have been strong, and 4 customers are likely to release major new Dot Hill based storage systems before the end of the year. Q2 was back-end loaded, so a fair amount of product went out at the end of the quarter that will book revenue in Q3.
So what did I do? I bought more HILL yesterday, basically buying back the shares I sold in March for $5.88 per share for just $3.51. Most of my shares I bought long ago for between $1 and $2 per share.
Of course Dot Hill management could be wrong, revenue and profits might not ramp in Q3 and Q4 and on into 2015. But I think it is likely they will, and Dot Hill will be far more valuable by mid 2015 than it is today. However, keep in mind that Dot Hill has disappointed in the past. Being a small-cap data storage provider is a difficult business.
The Nvidia Q2 conference seemed like it would provide no surprises until, near the end, an analyst asked about the bitcoin computing phenomena that had raised rival AMD's results in Q4 and Q1, but then hurt them when demand dropped off in Q2.
CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said why Nvidia GPU's were typically not used for bitcoin mining, or cryptocurrency in general. AMD's GPUs provide more performance per dollar. Mr. Huang argued extensively earlier in the conference (and in prior conferences) that because of its installed base and superior software, Nvidia GeForce GPU's are gamers' favorites. Maybe so, but it appears to be a well known fact in the computational community that if you want a lot of computation for your buck you want to go with AMD. The reality is that certain workloads do better with Nvidia's architecture, and certain workloads do better with AMD. I see this all the time, even within games, with some games getting better benchmarks with AMD, others doing better with Nvidia, assuming the same pricing range.
Friday, July 18, 2014
I Exit Seagate (STX); stick with AMD
Just to note that I have sold my stock in Seagate (STX). I have not decided whether to continue coverage or not. While I think of myself as a long-term investor, I am looking to beat market indexes. Seagate was priced ridiculously low in 2012, for reasons I have explained in prior posts.
I believe Seagate has now become a dividend stock. It pays a good dividend, it has good cash flow, and it has a strong stock buy-back program. However, there are other stocks I think have better growth prospects that are not fully priced in.
I bought STX for $23.13 on 6/12/2012. I sold it in halves at $59.07 on 7/8/2014 and $59.82 on 7/18/2014.
I did my usual write-up of the June quarter (fiscal Q4) Seagate results and analyst conference.
In contrast, while I did sell 1/5 of my AMD on 7/16/2014 for $4.72 per share. I thought there was enough enthusiasm about AMD to cause almost any Q1 results to disappoint. But I still hold considerable AMD (as a % of my portfolio) because I believe it is making progress with its turn around. I believe AMD is a 2015 story, when it will start selling its new server chips, chips for gaming consoles in China, and the promised 1 or 2 major new customized SoC chips for confidential clients. For more see my AMD Q1 2014 results conference.
Of course I would be open to buying more AMD or STX if the prices fell low enough and my current expectations were unchanged.
I believe Seagate has now become a dividend stock. It pays a good dividend, it has good cash flow, and it has a strong stock buy-back program. However, there are other stocks I think have better growth prospects that are not fully priced in.
I bought STX for $23.13 on 6/12/2012. I sold it in halves at $59.07 on 7/8/2014 and $59.82 on 7/18/2014.
I did my usual write-up of the June quarter (fiscal Q4) Seagate results and analyst conference.
In contrast, while I did sell 1/5 of my AMD on 7/16/2014 for $4.72 per share. I thought there was enough enthusiasm about AMD to cause almost any Q1 results to disappoint. But I still hold considerable AMD (as a % of my portfolio) because I believe it is making progress with its turn around. I believe AMD is a 2015 story, when it will start selling its new server chips, chips for gaming consoles in China, and the promised 1 or 2 major new customized SoC chips for confidential clients. For more see my AMD Q1 2014 results conference.
Of course I would be open to buying more AMD or STX if the prices fell low enough and my current expectations were unchanged.
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
AMD, what to look for
Another post published at Seeking Alpha:
3 More Reasons to Stay Long AMD
This would not be the best article for someone who knows nothing about Advanced Micro Devices. But so much has been written about AMD. There have been rumors of an inventory issue (too much of it) with high-end GPU cards. That is supposed to be the result of the end of the Bitcoin mania. So now gamers can actually buy high-end AMD GPU cards at reasonable prices. If there is some excess inventory, it will work out of the system quickly. The only real problem would be if people just plain stop buying high-end graphics cards, which does not seem likely.
There is the PC unit decline (or not) issue, and the ancient market share, AMD vs. Intel issue.
And we are all waiting to see if there will really be a AMD chip in some new mass market device beyond PCs and gaming consoles.
Which will all come out when AMD reports Q2 results on July 17. As usual, I will read and listen to the presentation and put up my notes (at AMD analyst conference summaries). But if you are thinking of investing in AMD, you should listen yourself (the link will be at AMD calendar). Why give the professionals an edge?
Good luck. Keep in mind I am always looking for the long-run value; I don't try to predict stock prices in the short run.
I own AMD stock; I am a business writer, not an investment advisor.
3 More Reasons to Stay Long AMD
This would not be the best article for someone who knows nothing about Advanced Micro Devices. But so much has been written about AMD. There have been rumors of an inventory issue (too much of it) with high-end GPU cards. That is supposed to be the result of the end of the Bitcoin mania. So now gamers can actually buy high-end AMD GPU cards at reasonable prices. If there is some excess inventory, it will work out of the system quickly. The only real problem would be if people just plain stop buying high-end graphics cards, which does not seem likely.
There is the PC unit decline (or not) issue, and the ancient market share, AMD vs. Intel issue.
And we are all waiting to see if there will really be a AMD chip in some new mass market device beyond PCs and gaming consoles.
Which will all come out when AMD reports Q2 results on July 17. As usual, I will read and listen to the presentation and put up my notes (at AMD analyst conference summaries). But if you are thinking of investing in AMD, you should listen yourself (the link will be at AMD calendar). Why give the professionals an edge?
Good luck. Keep in mind I am always looking for the long-run value; I don't try to predict stock prices in the short run.
I own AMD stock; I am a business writer, not an investment advisor.
Friday, April 11, 2014
Another Buying Opportunity: Amgen
Today I bought more Amgen (AMGN). It has a low P/E ratio, pays a dividend, and has a pipeline I like. On the other hand, it is a big company, so it can't grow as fast as say, Regeneron (REGN) or even Alexion (ALXN), both of which looked mighty tempting today.
Next week AMD reports Q1 results on Thursday. The following week I have at least 5 biotech stocks reporting Q1 results. Maybe stocks will get cheaper, but my guess is with the economy reviving nicely and actual earnings coming in, buyers will be back soon enough.
Next week AMD reports Q1 results on Thursday. The following week I have at least 5 biotech stocks reporting Q1 results. Maybe stocks will get cheaper, but my guess is with the economy reviving nicely and actual earnings coming in, buyers will be back soon enough.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
AMD, Intel and Nvidia
My newest at Seeking Alpha:
Diverging Strategies Make AMD, Intel and Nvidia All Buys
Strangely, between the time I wrote this article and it appeared at Seeking Alpha, AMD indicated it would no longer be making new CPU-only processors for PCs. All of its processors models (probably starting in 2015) will have a GPU component.
This furthers my thesis that Intel will be able to increase prices for many of its CPUs. AMD will benefit from concentrating on its APUs (for PCs, which are category killers. It will also be able to put more resources into its server and pure GPU efforts.
I own AMD stock. I reserve the right to buy Intel (INTC) or Nvidia (NVDA) at any time it suits me. Or not.
Diverging Strategies Make AMD, Intel and Nvidia All Buys
Strangely, between the time I wrote this article and it appeared at Seeking Alpha, AMD indicated it would no longer be making new CPU-only processors for PCs. All of its processors models (probably starting in 2015) will have a GPU component.
This furthers my thesis that Intel will be able to increase prices for many of its CPUs. AMD will benefit from concentrating on its APUs (for PCs, which are category killers. It will also be able to put more resources into its server and pure GPU efforts.
I own AMD stock. I reserve the right to buy Intel (INTC) or Nvidia (NVDA) at any time it suits me. Or not.
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Altera, AMD, Intuitive Surgical and Xilinx analyst call notes posted
Earnings season! Like many analysts I spend considerable time listening to company conference calls and looking at numbers. While what I do for paid clients is secret, if I am listening for my own stocks or for ones I might potentially buy, I post my notes online at openicon.com. It gives a deeper view than a typical news story, but if you are (like me) and individual stock picker, if you like what you read you should listen to the entire conference yourself and go over the documents filed with the SEC before investing.
Last week I posted notes on:
Altera (ALTR) Q4 analyst conference call
AMD (AMD) Q4 analyst conference call
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q4 analyst conference call
Xilinx (XLNX) Q4 analyst conference call
This week the following conferences are on my agenda. I like to do them live, but sometimes there delays before I post my notes.
This coming week will be busy with Seagate reporting on Monday, Amgen and Illumina and Tuesday, Biogen Idec, SGI, and Vertex on Wednesday, and Celgene and Alexion on Thursday. The links in this paragraph lead to my pages on each of the companies, with further links to the conference call summaries plus stories I have written and stories I think are important that were written by others.
As I write this, of the companies mentioned, I own AMD, Biogen Idec, SGI, and Celgene. I may buy any company mentioned at any time. I am a long-term investor, but I may sell a stock I own if it rises fast enough to violate my rules limiting each holding to a % of my portfolio, or if I see a better opportunity. My trades are too small to influence stock prices for more than a few microseconds.
Last week I posted notes on:
Altera (ALTR) Q4 analyst conference call
AMD (AMD) Q4 analyst conference call
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q4 analyst conference call
Xilinx (XLNX) Q4 analyst conference call
This week the following conferences are on my agenda. I like to do them live, but sometimes there delays before I post my notes.
This coming week will be busy with Seagate reporting on Monday, Amgen and Illumina and Tuesday, Biogen Idec, SGI, and Vertex on Wednesday, and Celgene and Alexion on Thursday. The links in this paragraph lead to my pages on each of the companies, with further links to the conference call summaries plus stories I have written and stories I think are important that were written by others.
As I write this, of the companies mentioned, I own AMD, Biogen Idec, SGI, and Celgene. I may buy any company mentioned at any time. I am a long-term investor, but I may sell a stock I own if it rises fast enough to violate my rules limiting each holding to a % of my portfolio, or if I see a better opportunity. My trades are too small to influence stock prices for more than a few microseconds.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
AMD versus Nvidia
I have a new article at Seeking Alpha:
Advanced Micro Devices Versus Nvidia: Is There Anything For Investors In Their Final Battle?
As stated there, I own AMD stock. While I don't own NVDA, I have owned it in the past, and like the company.
For details on the latest quarter results, and Q&A with analysts, you can see my notes at OpenIcon:
Nvidia Q3 2013 results and analyst call
AMD Q3 2013 results and analyst call
This is an epic battle, with a surreal sense since both companies make the chips that power computer games. I don't see an obvious winner. Both companies have beaten-down stock prices, but AMD's is more downtrodden than Nvidia's.
There are already 13 comments at Seeking Alpha. I write about both IT stocks and biotech stocks, and I have noticed that there are a lot more comments on IT stocks. It appears a lot of IT guys who are investors are members of the Seeking Alpha community.
They are a sharp bunch. They will fill in many details about AMD and Nvidia. They will pounce on any errors I made. The shorts will challenge my pro-long details, and the longs will challenge my pro-short details. It is a debate not dissimilar to what you see at sites like www.anandtech.com when someone reviews an AMD or Nvidia gaming card. But generally more polite, less sarcastic, and more fact driven.
I've been covering and investing in and out of Nvidia and AMD for a long time. For a long-term, historic view check out my numerous links to old article and analyst conference summaries at:
Openicon AMD
Openicon NVDA
Advanced Micro Devices Versus Nvidia: Is There Anything For Investors In Their Final Battle?
As stated there, I own AMD stock. While I don't own NVDA, I have owned it in the past, and like the company.
For details on the latest quarter results, and Q&A with analysts, you can see my notes at OpenIcon:
Nvidia Q3 2013 results and analyst call
AMD Q3 2013 results and analyst call
This is an epic battle, with a surreal sense since both companies make the chips that power computer games. I don't see an obvious winner. Both companies have beaten-down stock prices, but AMD's is more downtrodden than Nvidia's.
There are already 13 comments at Seeking Alpha. I write about both IT stocks and biotech stocks, and I have noticed that there are a lot more comments on IT stocks. It appears a lot of IT guys who are investors are members of the Seeking Alpha community.
They are a sharp bunch. They will fill in many details about AMD and Nvidia. They will pounce on any errors I made. The shorts will challenge my pro-long details, and the longs will challenge my pro-short details. It is a debate not dissimilar to what you see at sites like www.anandtech.com when someone reviews an AMD or Nvidia gaming card. But generally more polite, less sarcastic, and more fact driven.
I've been covering and investing in and out of Nvidia and AMD for a long time. For a long-term, historic view check out my numerous links to old article and analyst conference summaries at:
Openicon AMD
Openicon NVDA
Friday, October 18, 2013
AMD and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 conference notes
I listened to the AMD and Intuitive Surgical analyst conference calls yesterday.
You can read my notes following these links:
AMD Q3 2013 analyst conference call
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 2013 analyst conference call
Market behavior this morning, following these results, is interesting. AMD actually beat its prior guidance, but the stock plunged, down 12.5% as I write. Which would seem to mean that at least some investors thought AMD would do even better. In any case AMD was in the black in Q3, both on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, and has big plans for 2014. Following up on its wins for the processors of all 3 major game consoles, AMD has a pipeline of potential large volume deals for its SoCs (System on Chips). On the other hand, management made it clear that it can't promise profitability in Q1 or Q2 of 2014 because those quarters are typically slow for consumer electronics.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) missed guidance and reduced guidance for the full year. It also fell this morning, but currently at a less frightening but still significant 4.5%. Intuitive had high growth rates since it first brought its surgical robots to market, but now has hit y/y declines because of adverse publicity, market saturation in at least one key surgical procedure, and hospitals being more cautious about capital equipment spending.
I own some AMD stock and would like to accumulate more, if the price is right. AMD is having trouble with its traditional microprocessor business, but is smartly ramping up products that don't compete head to head with Intel. It will be a long, slow march to making serious profits that can pay off debt and eventually even be distributed to shareholders, hence the low stock price.
I don't own ISRG but would like to start accumulating it. Whether I actually buy any depends on the price (hopefully even lower), the other possible uses of cash, and any changes in my opinion of its future.
I am way busy with higher-priority projects right now so I don't know when I will write up more detailed analysis of these companies for Seeking Alpha, but I hope to at some point.
Keep diversified!
You can read my notes following these links:
AMD Q3 2013 analyst conference call
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 2013 analyst conference call
Market behavior this morning, following these results, is interesting. AMD actually beat its prior guidance, but the stock plunged, down 12.5% as I write. Which would seem to mean that at least some investors thought AMD would do even better. In any case AMD was in the black in Q3, both on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, and has big plans for 2014. Following up on its wins for the processors of all 3 major game consoles, AMD has a pipeline of potential large volume deals for its SoCs (System on Chips). On the other hand, management made it clear that it can't promise profitability in Q1 or Q2 of 2014 because those quarters are typically slow for consumer electronics.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) missed guidance and reduced guidance for the full year. It also fell this morning, but currently at a less frightening but still significant 4.5%. Intuitive had high growth rates since it first brought its surgical robots to market, but now has hit y/y declines because of adverse publicity, market saturation in at least one key surgical procedure, and hospitals being more cautious about capital equipment spending.
I own some AMD stock and would like to accumulate more, if the price is right. AMD is having trouble with its traditional microprocessor business, but is smartly ramping up products that don't compete head to head with Intel. It will be a long, slow march to making serious profits that can pay off debt and eventually even be distributed to shareholders, hence the low stock price.
I don't own ISRG but would like to start accumulating it. Whether I actually buy any depends on the price (hopefully even lower), the other possible uses of cash, and any changes in my opinion of its future.
I am way busy with higher-priority projects right now so I don't know when I will write up more detailed analysis of these companies for Seeking Alpha, but I hope to at some point.
Keep diversified!
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
AMD Q2 results analyzed
My new post at Seeking Alpha:
AMD has been a dog for some time, but I see Q2 2013 results as showing its about to get up and show us what a smart dog can do. I own AMD stock and am thinking of buying more. I believe AMD can do well bringing its semiconductor design expertise into industrial and medical applications, but of course we won't really know until the second half of 2014.
You can also see my notes on last week's call here: AMD Q2 2013 earnings call summary
Later today I hope to post notes on the Altera Q2 2013 analyst call, and I'm trying to find time to write up my thoughts on their rival Xilinx for Seeking Alpha. Then Akamai on Wednesday.
But my big day this week, covering a large % of my portfoliio, is Thursday when Biogen, Celgene and Gilead all report on their June quarters.
Keep diversified!
You can also see my notes on last week's call here: AMD Q2 2013 earnings call summary
Later today I hope to post notes on the Altera Q2 2013 analyst call, and I'm trying to find time to write up my thoughts on their rival Xilinx for Seeking Alpha. Then Akamai on Wednesday.
But my big day this week, covering a large % of my portfoliio, is Thursday when Biogen, Celgene and Gilead all report on their June quarters.
Keep diversified!
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Intel analysis
My latest article at Seeking Alpha:
Intel: Neither Bullish Nor Bearish Stories Hold Up
It mights seem a bit strange writing an article where, after a complex analysis of moving parts, my conclusion is close to neutral. But after doing my research and analysis, that was my conclusion. I spend a lot of effort trying to predict the future. That is what individual stock picks are about. In this case several variables could have gone in either positive or negative directions, so my best bet is neutral. That does not preclude the bears or bulls on Intel being right, but they certainly can't prove they are right. If they were, the stock price would be different.
Intel: Neither Bullish Nor Bearish Stories Hold Up
It mights seem a bit strange writing an article where, after a complex analysis of moving parts, my conclusion is close to neutral. But after doing my research and analysis, that was my conclusion. I spend a lot of effort trying to predict the future. That is what individual stock picks are about. In this case several variables could have gone in either positive or negative directions, so my best bet is neutral. That does not preclude the bears or bulls on Intel being right, but they certainly can't prove they are right. If they were, the stock price would be different.
Monday, May 20, 2013
AMD new post
My newest post is at SeekingAlpha:
AMD Game Console Triple Crown: Will there be Profits
There is already a great discussion going on this article and the prospects of AMD and Intel (INTC)
AMD Game Console Triple Crown: Will there be Profits
There is already a great discussion going on this article and the prospects of AMD and Intel (INTC)
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
AMD sure of turnaround in 2013
AMD hit revenue guidance for the final quarter of 2012, but the numbers were still dismal. Revenue was $1.16 billion, down 9% sequentially from $1.27 billion, and down 32% from $1.69 in the year-earlier quarter. Guidance is for Q1 2013 revenue to be down around another 9%. Net income was $473 million in the red on a GAAP basis, and even on a non-GAAP basis was $102 million short of break-even.
Despite that AMD CEO Rory Read were surprisingly upbeat about 2013, predicting the a return to profitability in the second half. Of course we've heard that kind of optimism from AMD before, only to be let down. Are AMD's claims of a turn-around ahead credible?
AMD is currently known for making CPUs that compete with Intel's for personal computers (notebooks and desktops) and servers. In addition AMD makes stand alone graphics chips (GPUs), competing mainly with NVIDIA. AMD has not done well in the server space these last five years, and the PC space has started to shrink, in part because tablets and smartphones have become more popular and mostly use ARM based CPUs, rather than the more capable and power-hungry x86 coded chips made by AMD and Intel.
In 2012, in an effort led by the remarkable vice president of global business units Lisa Su, AMD started to re-target its intellectual property development towards growth sectors. The acquisition of SeaMicro acted as an entry to the dense server space, where AMD's graphics expertise could eventually help with highly-parallel computations, and Opteron technology is a better fit than Intel's server chip designs. In addition, AMD has announced it will use ARM technology when appropriate in this field. Although the complete new system will not be available for some time, Rory reported that Q4 SeaMicro revenue grew.
A second major line of attack is embedded SoC chips. This is a bit of a vague term; as used by AMD, it seems to amount to the non-PC sector. SoC, System on Chip, typically means that the chip is not a stand-alone CPU. In reality, even what we now call CPUs are not stand-alone CPUs: AMD has been a leader in moving critical components that "glue" the CPU to the rest of the system, like memory controllers, onto a single chip. Embedded SoC in this case means customized for a particular application. Rory indicated AMD would be looking only at relatively high-volume applications as margins have been too low in some low-volume systems. Examples of possible embedded AMD chip use would be for advertising displays, casino machines, industrial and medical use.
AMD does not currently break out embedded revenue, but the goal is to raise it to 20% of revenue by the end of the year. No word on whether that is 20% extra revenue or 20% replacement of eroding PC revenue, and Rory made it clear no details would be announced until the OEMs are ready to announce them.
The PC business, of course, is still critical, as is the entry into tablet computing. Rory made a point that AMD engineers are executing well, making their timeline, and in one crucial area are about 6 months ahead of Intel. Along those lines, AMD has demonstrated working Temash and Kabini silicon. These APUs will be quad core SoCs for the tablet and mobile markets. They also already introduced the new Richland A series APU, upgrading a sweet spot in their line.
This morning as I write AMD has popped from its pre-conference and results close of $2.45 up 9% to $2.67. Obviously no one knows if AMD will be able to execute its plan or if, once products are available, they will sell well enough to bring AMD back to profitability. It has the look and feel of a good plan and a big turnaround to me, but I have been wrong about AMD in the past, and the sands of silicon are shifting rapidly and unpredictably. Before getting bullish on AMD, I'd like to see the 2013 products, the revenue, and the profits.
Disclaimer: I have long been long AMD and will not trade the stock for 3 days after the publication of this report.
William P. Meyers
See also:
www.amd.com
My main AMD analyst conferences page.
My AMD Q4 2012 analyst conference notes
Despite that AMD CEO Rory Read were surprisingly upbeat about 2013, predicting the a return to profitability in the second half. Of course we've heard that kind of optimism from AMD before, only to be let down. Are AMD's claims of a turn-around ahead credible?
AMD is currently known for making CPUs that compete with Intel's for personal computers (notebooks and desktops) and servers. In addition AMD makes stand alone graphics chips (GPUs), competing mainly with NVIDIA. AMD has not done well in the server space these last five years, and the PC space has started to shrink, in part because tablets and smartphones have become more popular and mostly use ARM based CPUs, rather than the more capable and power-hungry x86 coded chips made by AMD and Intel.
In 2012, in an effort led by the remarkable vice president of global business units Lisa Su, AMD started to re-target its intellectual property development towards growth sectors. The acquisition of SeaMicro acted as an entry to the dense server space, where AMD's graphics expertise could eventually help with highly-parallel computations, and Opteron technology is a better fit than Intel's server chip designs. In addition, AMD has announced it will use ARM technology when appropriate in this field. Although the complete new system will not be available for some time, Rory reported that Q4 SeaMicro revenue grew.
A second major line of attack is embedded SoC chips. This is a bit of a vague term; as used by AMD, it seems to amount to the non-PC sector. SoC, System on Chip, typically means that the chip is not a stand-alone CPU. In reality, even what we now call CPUs are not stand-alone CPUs: AMD has been a leader in moving critical components that "glue" the CPU to the rest of the system, like memory controllers, onto a single chip. Embedded SoC in this case means customized for a particular application. Rory indicated AMD would be looking only at relatively high-volume applications as margins have been too low in some low-volume systems. Examples of possible embedded AMD chip use would be for advertising displays, casino machines, industrial and medical use.
AMD does not currently break out embedded revenue, but the goal is to raise it to 20% of revenue by the end of the year. No word on whether that is 20% extra revenue or 20% replacement of eroding PC revenue, and Rory made it clear no details would be announced until the OEMs are ready to announce them.
The PC business, of course, is still critical, as is the entry into tablet computing. Rory made a point that AMD engineers are executing well, making their timeline, and in one crucial area are about 6 months ahead of Intel. Along those lines, AMD has demonstrated working Temash and Kabini silicon. These APUs will be quad core SoCs for the tablet and mobile markets. They also already introduced the new Richland A series APU, upgrading a sweet spot in their line.
This morning as I write AMD has popped from its pre-conference and results close of $2.45 up 9% to $2.67. Obviously no one knows if AMD will be able to execute its plan or if, once products are available, they will sell well enough to bring AMD back to profitability. It has the look and feel of a good plan and a big turnaround to me, but I have been wrong about AMD in the past, and the sands of silicon are shifting rapidly and unpredictably. Before getting bullish on AMD, I'd like to see the 2013 products, the revenue, and the profits.
Disclaimer: I have long been long AMD and will not trade the stock for 3 days after the publication of this report.
William P. Meyers
See also:
www.amd.com
My main AMD analyst conferences page.
My AMD Q4 2012 analyst conference notes
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