tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35648015740723346482024-03-13T09:23:47.015-07:00Dissecting the BullReporting about and analyzing technology stocksWilliam P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.comBlogger623125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-26524617244909476062016-07-08T10:19:00.002-07:002016-07-08T10:19:21.317-07:00ImmunoGen and JunoI own some ImmunoGen (IMGN) and some Juno Therapeutics (JUNO), both of which are small (under 1%) parts of my portfolio, since they are development-stage companies. <br />
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Yesterday I had my article on ImmunoGen published at Seeking Alpha:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3987015-immunogen-oversold-despite-strong-pipeline">ImmunoGen Oversold Despite Strong Pipeline</a><br />
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Yesterday Juno announced it had a trial suspended due to the deaths of 2 cancer patients. I had talked about that risk in my earlier Seeking Alpha article: <br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3498386-juno-therapeutics-celgene-partnership-and-car-t-pipeline-value">Juno Therapeutics: Celgene Partnership and CAR-T Pipeline Value</a><br />
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In one sense the market is overreacting to the news, but then Juno has quite a high market capitalization for a company that does not have approvable Phase 3 results for a therapy yet ($3 billion today, $4 billion yesterday).<br />
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ImmunoGen has a very small market cap, just above its cash balances, as I explained in my article. While considerable risk is certainly involved, the bounce to the small cap should be much bigger, if a therapy is approved, than the bounce to a company that already has success figured into its larger cap.<br />
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Most of my portfolio is in large cap biotechs that have large cash flows and extensive pipelines, like Gilead (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Biogen (BIIB) and Celgene (CELG).<br />
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I own quite a few small cap and even nano-cap stocks, but only one makes up a substantial part of my portfolio at present, Inovio (INO). That is because I bought a lot of INO cheap before other investors discovered it. I am of course hoping ImmunoGen will give my portfolio a similar boost. But keep in mind it took years for INO to get to where it is today.<br />
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My typical investment horizon is 3 to 5 years. Most investors, whether individuals or institutions, don't seem to be able to think that far ahead. It works for me.<br />
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Keep Diversified!<br />
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You can see all my business writing at <a href="http://www.openicon.com/">www.openicon.com</a><br />
<br />William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-67838596309611399502016-07-05T10:47:00.001-07:002016-07-05T10:47:49.138-07:00Sold my Bind Therapeutics.I sold my Bind Therapeutics (BIND) stock today after it went up on the news that Pfizer will make an offer to buy its assets. The problem is that, as I read it, Pfizer won't buy the debts, and there will not be money for continuing operations once the debt is paid. The potential upside is that some other company will outbid Pfizer. This is within the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process. I think its technology should be worth more, especially given that it has several drugs using it that are being developed by large pharma companies that will owe substantial milestones and royalties if successful.<br />
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I lost money on Bind, so I am glad it only made up a small portion of my portfolio. I continue to own a number of small, risky biotechnology stocks. On the whole I have done well with this type of pick, but BIND now joins a small group of picks I took large % losses on, including DVIN and ANSV. And although I made money on DNDN by getting in early and then getting mostly out when it went high, in the end stockholders lost everything.<br />
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Reminder to myself and all:<br />
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Keep DiversifiedWilliam P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-52642916065552630762016-06-30T15:49:00.001-07:002016-06-30T15:49:27.250-07:00Initiation of Coverage of ImmunoGenI previously owned biotechnology pharmaceutical companies working with ADC (antibody drug conjugate) technologies, notably Celldex (CLDX). On April 29, 2016 I bought an initial small amount of ImmunoGen (IMGN), which has an extensive pipeline of potential ADC therapies, several major partners. One of its technologies is part of an ADC that received FDA approval to be marketed by Roche.<br />
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ImmunoGen has run into some problems, resulting in a continuing decline of the stock price. I am accumulating it. <br />
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I also initiated taking notes on the quarterly analyst conferences. You can see my notes, a list of other stocks I take notes on, and a list of stocks I am currently invested in at the following links:<br />
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<a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/imgn_main.html">ImmunoGen Analyst Conference Notes</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/listcos.html">Companies Covered by William Meyers</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.openicon.com/positions.html">Positions of William Meyers</a><br />
<br />
Since I am a journalist, not a financial advisor, I aim for full disclosure. I try to be objective, but there is a human tendency to be biased in favor of one's investments.<br />
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Keep diversified!William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-50688635224363490492016-06-24T13:50:00.000-07:002016-06-24T13:50:26.278-07:00Alnylam, Microchip, BrexitIt is a bloody day on Wall Street and across the world's markets, but I am not worried, yet. Since I am mainly in biotechnology stocks I will be interested to see if England eventually stops using the EMA (European Medical Authority) to decide what new drugs to allow to be sold in the country. And of course if the dollar weakens that tends to hurt American pharmaceutical companies, as sales in Europe look worse once they are converted to dollars.<br />
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Meanwhile I see much of the value in my particular portfolio in the development pipelines of the companies I own. Successes and failures will have more of an impact than Brexit.<br />
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I had two articles published at Seeking Alpha this week:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3983570-alnylam-readouts-offer-2017minus-2018-catalysts">Alnylam Readouts Offer 2017-2018 Catalysts</a><br />
<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984051-microchip-buy-atmel-transformation"><br /></a>
<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984051-microchip-buy-atmel-transformation">Microchip is a Buy on Atmel Transformation</a><br />
<br />
I own a small amount of Alnylam, while Microchip Technology is one of my largest positions, representing almost 10% of my portfolio. <br />
<br />
To see the other stocks I own or follow, with links to my notes on the companies, see:<br />
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<a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/listcos.html">William Meyers Stocks</a>William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-30470873234659972912016-06-09T16:41:00.001-07:002016-06-09T16:41:44.272-07:00GlycoMimetics: if you can stand the risk, buy itMy latest Seeking Alpha article:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3981085-glycomimetics-undercovered-catalysts-coming">GlycoMimetics: Undercovered with Catalysts Coming</a><br />
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I originally bought GLYC on March 31, 2015, then on April 17. Then more on August 24, 2015. Mostly lately bought on January 13, 2016.<br />
<br />
I want more, but I'd have to sell something first, and that would mean (most likely) selling one of my winners with solid profits. And as much as I like GlycoMimetics, it is a development stage company. If its VOC trial fails, that would mean a price plunge. So for now I'll just be patient.<br />
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Waiting for biotechnology drug pipelines to mature is a major test of patience.<br />
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Keep diversified.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-37572804850018822642016-06-02T09:24:00.001-07:002016-06-02T09:24:54.798-07:00Biogen updated analysisI set out to write a quick article on Biogen, but one thing led to another, and it expanded into a relatively detailed analysis. I own Biogen, and while there are some negatives in the picture like declining interferon sales, on the whole it looks very positive for the next few years. <br />
<br />
The full article:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3979441-biogen-keys-value-2017-beyond">Biogen (BIIB) Keys to Value in 2017 and Beyond</a><br />
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Keep diversified!William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-16374686192912419012016-05-16T13:30:00.002-07:002016-05-16T13:30:40.364-07:00Gilead, Hansen Medical, Mylan, Immunogen buys and sellsThis is my first post since April 17. I simply have been busy. I have covered and taken notes on over 40 analyst conferences. To see what I share go to:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/listcos.html">Analyst Conference Notes by William Meyers</a><br />
<br />
My only sale during this period was my Hansen Medical stock, and that was only because it was acquired for $3.99 per share. Not one of my best investments. Hansen never was able to sell as many of its surgical robots as the technology promised.<br />
<br />
I bought more Mylan, which I think is vastly underpriced for long term investors. I bought my first Immunogen. I bought Seagate (STX) because it is so bloody low that any good news should send it up, and it recently introduced new drives that should reinforce its datacenter/cloud business. Plus its dividend is now phenomenal.<br />
<br />
And today I considerably enlarged me Celsion (CLSN) position. But I warn you: it is not for the feint of heart. It has a very small market capitalization and needs to get some more good data just to raise more cash and keep going. Which means dilution. And of course, in addition, the future data could be bad. If the data is good and the cash can be raised to get it to an FDA approval, however, it could be a great stock.<br />
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I had a couple of articles at Seeking Alpha, the latest being:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3970511-gilead-sciences-q1-key-insights">Gilead Sciences Q1 Key Insights</a><br />
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Most of my portfolio is in larger cap stocks like Gilead. I buy only tiny amounts of stocks like Celsion. On the other hand sometimes those grow to large amounts, as for example with Inovio (INO), which has grown to be near 10% of my portfolio.<br />
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Keep Diversified!<br />
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And may Fortuna be with you<br />
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<br />William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-85293074887713693332016-04-17T09:56:00.000-07:002016-04-17T09:56:00.086-07:00Celldex et alI've been busy, even as earnings reports start heating up this week from Intuitive Surgical, Intel, Biogen, and AMD. So all I'll do here is provide links to my latest Seeking Alpha Articles:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3965521-celldex-set-bounce-back">Celldex Set to Bounce Back</a><br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3964047-accumulating-bind-therapeutics-levels">I'm Accumulating Bind Therapeutics</a><br />
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To get to my coverage of analyst conferences for the stocks I cover, go to:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/listcos.html">Openicon Calendar</a>William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-4213291956276693412016-03-07T08:45:00.001-08:002016-03-07T10:10:22.515-08:00Woke Up with the Celldex Blues this MorningSometimes procrastination saves face.<br />
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This morning I could have had an article published at Seeking Alpha titled "<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Celldex Could Pop Up Sooner Than Expected." Pop as in pop up, due to their preliminary brain cancer results being so good that they would qualify for FDA approval without needing to complete the Phase 3 trial.</span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><br /></span></div>
I had listened to the Celldex (CLDX) analyst call on February 25 and noted this possibility. Management was extremely confident about the outcome because the earlier Phase 2 trial had gone so well. They were not confident the trial would be discontinued because of success, but they said the chances of that were "reasonable." More likely, the full Phase 3 trial would have to be completed to see if the statistics were strong enough to get FDA approval.<br />
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Boom. Woke up this morning with the Celldex Blues. It jumped out when I looked at my portfolio: Celldex down by about half. Had to be bad news, and it was: preliminary data said Rintega was not worth pursuing even to the normal end of the trial. Too bad for glioblastoma patients, and too bad for stockholders.<br />
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I am a stockholder. But fortunately my investments are spread out over about 30 companies, the usual big ones like Gilead and Amgen, plus a large number of development-stage companies. There was good news elsewhere in my portfolio. No point to my selling Celldex either. They have a more extensive pipeline. <br />
<br />
But I am not about saving face. I am about investors understanding potential risks and rewards. I understood the risk. Celldex was a recent acquisition for me. I was tempted to buy more, and of course if the trial had been stopped for efficacy, I would have regretted not buying more. So it goes. I wish I had bought more biotech stocks in 2008, but I did well with what I bought in that year and in 2009.<br />
<br />
So keep in mind, no matter how promising earlier statistics are, a later trial can fail. Even a therapy with good statistics in Phase 2 can fail in Phase 3. That is one reason a company with a broad pipeline is safer than a company with a single therapy candidate. I would have mentioned the possibility of failure, but the overall tone of the article would have understated it.<br />
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Keep in mind that in most important trials, the studies are really double blind in that data is monitored by a separate organization, so management does not see the results except at intervals.<br />
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I used to always end this column with a reminder, to myself as much as my readers, and I will do it again in at least this one column:<br />
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Keep Diversified!William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-29636246007084554582016-02-13T12:53:00.000-08:002016-02-13T12:53:33.512-08:00Amgen and possible biotech bottomSo far 2016 has been very tough on biotechnology and healthcare investors, including me. I continue to think that many if not most pharmaceutical company stocks are now undervalued. This is especially true of clinical stage companies if you have an investment horizon that allows their pipelines to mature.<br />
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I wrote an article about Amgen that was published at Seeking Alpha:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3888106-amgen-valuation-now-excludes-potential-repatha-revenue">Amgen Valuation Now Excludes Potential Repatha Revenues</a><br />
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Amgen is one of the few biotech companies that pays a dividend. Gilead does too. In times like this when the market underappreciates pharma companies, the dividend reminds us that these companies are plenty profitable and are highly likely to become considerably more valuable for those who are patient.<br />
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Since I think we could be at a bottom I am going to be buying some more biotech stocks this week.<br />
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If it is not a bottom, it is because of panicky investors thinking wrongly. The more the market goes down, the more stock I will buy. This is a much better strategy than buying more because you are excited that the market (or a sector, or a particular stock) is going up. Provided you buy companies that have greater long term than present value. That means companies that look likely to get FDA and EU approvals for drugs that are in clinical trials now.<br />
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I have seen the market overvalue drugs in pipelines. Usually that is a result of assuming a drug will get FDA approval, and instead it being a dud. Sometimes investors, often pushed by brokers, get overexcited, so that following an FDA approval the drug cannot possibly generate enough revenue to justify the price prior to approval. <br />
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Watch out for that type of thing. But don't miss out on real opportunities when they present themselves. Look at each stock carefully before buying.<br />
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Remember, my writing is journalism, not investment advice.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-57661748572411192302016-02-07T11:15:00.001-08:002016-02-07T11:15:47.155-08:00GlycoMimetics and other conferences this weekA lot of biotechnology companies are reporting fourth quarter 2015 results this week. A round of investor conferences kick off too.<br />
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None of that is likely to turn around the current slump in biotechnology stocks. That is going to require a change in sentiment. That will require continued revenue ramps from the commercial stage companies plus quite a number of new drug approvals from the FDA. When enough investors regain confidence we will see P/E ratios that are rational and pipelines that are also rationally valued. When that will happen is anyone's guess. I continue to accumulate biotechnology shares as I am able. Many are dirt cheap right now, but it still pays to be selective.<br />
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GlycoMimetics will make a presentation at 12:30 Pacific Time on Monday the 8th. If you want to prep for it you can read my article published at Seeking Alpha on Saturday:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3870916-glycomimetics-novel-therapeutic-approach-possible-high-returns">GlycoMimetics: A Novel Therapeutic Approach With Possible High Returns</a><br />
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other stocks I own or cover that are reporting this week:<br />
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Tuesday: Regeneron, Seattle Genetics<br />
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Wednesday: Mylan<br />
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Thursday: Incyte, Alnylam<br />
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I post my notes on quarter results conferences. You can see my list with links to the notes here: <a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/listcos.html">OpenIcon Analyst Conference Notes</a>William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-66287706924709544082016-01-26T11:05:00.000-08:002016-01-26T11:05:02.219-08:00Alexion Pharmaceuticals, could buy moreNew article at Seeking Alpha<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3833946-alexion-long-term-upside-ride-will-bumpy">Alexion has Long-term Upside, But the Ride will be Bumpy</a><br />
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I would note that the title I submitted to Seeking Alpha editors was
<br />
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">"Alexion Pharmaceuticals: What to look for in 2016 and Beyond"</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I don't have much ALXN in my portfolio, I bought a minimal amount in February 2015 at $175.12 per share. It went well up for a while, now I am down. So I am seriously thinking of buying more Alexion at bargain prices. On the other hand, my cash is limited, and there are other companies that are competing for that cash use. I may even just hold onto the cash for a clearer short-term opportunity.</span></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-35903928824254389002016-01-22T11:16:00.001-08:002016-01-22T11:16:40.114-08:00Agenus upgradeI own Agenus stock. On January 21, 2016, Agenus had some good news, so I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3826936-agenus-gets-2-inds-time-revalue-upward">Agenus Gets 2 INDs: Time to Revalue Upward</a><br />
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I felt particularly good about the news since I increased my AGEN holdings slightly on January 20, based solely on seeing that it was at a 52-week low, and feeling it will be worth a lot, lot more in the long run.<br />
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In other recent trades I bought more Star Bulk (SBLK), which is a very risky company, which I don't recommend to anyone, and hope if you do consider it you research it thoroughly and accept the risk involved.<br />
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I also bought more GlycoMimetics (GLYC), which is a small biotech company with a novel therapy in clinical trials. Again, because it only has one therapy in trials at this point, if that therapy fails it could mean the failure of the entire company. Buy at your own risk.<br />
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It looks like the markets are calming down. I believe most (but not all) biotechnology stocks are undervalued for long-term investors. But what you can buy or sell a stock for on a given day is subject to an auction. Buy low and sell high, which is the opposite of what most investors and traders do, which is why it works. Second option: buy good companies and hold them, and don't worry so much.<br />
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I am a journalist and investor, not a financial advisor.<br />
<br />William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-53436051585692423832016-01-19T09:44:00.002-08:002016-01-19T09:44:50.130-08:00Merrimack Pharmaceuticals and OnivydeBeginning the week with a new article at Seeking Alpha:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3816696-merrimack-pharmaceuticals-drive-higher-2016-onivyde-pipeline">Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Should Drive Higher In 2016 On Onivyde And Pipeline</a><br />
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I must admit I was a bit dubious about Merrimack when I first came across it in the distant past. I took a long time and did quite a bit of research before initially investing in September of 2014. The stock is down, since then (I bought at $7.97), but the progress has been great. I think MACK is a huge bargain at this point, though not without it risks.<br />
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This afternoon AMD reports Q4 earnings. I don't expect anything spectacular, but I do hope for some optimism about 2016. AMD is one of my few remaining semiconductor stocks. Almost my entire portfolio is in biotechnology now.<br />
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I am a journalist & investor. I try to be honest and pick good stocks for my own portfolio, but that does not mean my portfolio is right for you, nor is any individual stock. William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-46559117713937996212016-01-12T10:18:00.000-08:002016-01-12T10:18:31.733-08:00Celgene and Biogen Peek at 2016It's a busy day. I just listened to Inovio give a presentation, and in less than 30 minutes the one by Alexion starts.<br />
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Mainly, I have two new articles at Seeking Alpha:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3804746-a-look-at-biogens-2016-catalysts">A look at Biogen's 2016 catalysts</a><br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3804576-celgene-2015-results-2016-guidance-and-todays-price-drop">Celgene 2015 Results, 2016 Guidance, and Today's Price drop</a><br />
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Which should you buy? Celgene is as close to a long-term sure thing as you can find in the biotech world. Biogen is much thinner in its future drug pipeline, but if its Phase 3 Alheimer's trials are a success, it could double of triple in value overnight (that would be a night late in 2016 or even well into 2017). Both are great companies.<br />
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Oh, and I'll listen to the Merrimack presentation this afternoon (2:30 PM Pacific Time), while in the next few minutes I'll try to read the comments on my new articles and reply if it seems helpful.<br />
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Have I lost big time in the opening days of 2016! You betcha! But the companies are all the same and are going to be worth a lot more in a few years. <br />
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Keep diversified!William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-18546505166522936962016-01-07T12:58:00.000-08:002016-01-07T12:58:14.069-08:00Playing the Market vs. Owning CompaniesLike most investors, my stock portfolio has taken a serious hit since the year 2016 began. Hence I need to remind myself of a few basic facts.<br />
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The stock market is an auction market. It is a convenience to be able to trade your stocks for cash, or vice versa, any given moment of most weekdays. But whether you get a fair price depends on the collective bidding of millions of other people and institutions.<br />
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As a long term investor, I need to think of myself as a business owner. A stockholder of a number of important companies. In my case, companies that invent, develop, and provide medicines to people.<br />
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A slow down in industrial development in China should not affect the long-term earnings of the biotechnology companies I own.<br />
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Things can go wrong, like a promising drug candidate failing to pass a clinical trial. Or an older drug that is making money being replaced by a better drug made by a rival, or eventually going generic.<br />
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I am willing to sell some of my stocks to fools if I think the auction price of the stock has gotten well beyond its real long-term value.<br />
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And I am willing to buy from fools when stocks I want have fallen below a price that is attractive to me.<br />
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But what I think has been going on this week is algorithms chasing algorithms. More than half of trading is typically done by computers, on behalf of real people. Algorithms panic easily.<br />
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I am not buying right now because I don't have that much cash in my portfolio. Prices have not reached truly bargain-basement levels. It they do, I will likely transfer some funds into my account in order to do some buying.<br />
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I like my Biotech portfolio. I believe that certain stocks, notably Gilead, were already undervalued before the sell off began.<br />
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As a stockholder in companies with growing drug portfolios, revenues, and profits, I can wait. If the stock price does not reflect the true value of the company, then the company will return some of the profits to stockholders, by reinvesting, stock-buy backs, or my favorite, increasing the dividend.<br />
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But there are many styles of trading stocks and investing in companies. Including those computer algorithms.<br />
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The American economy seems to be strong despite weakness in the oil and gas sector. That should ultimately allow better healthcare for Americans, and allow people (and the government and insurers) to afford the new miracle drugs my companies have developed and continue to develop. William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-55138240641116543812016-01-05T09:20:00.000-08:002016-01-05T09:20:17.270-08:00How I got a 15.7% return in 2015Per my agreement with Seeking Alpha, I have to send you there to read it:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3789856-how-i-beat-the-averages-in-2015-with-a-15_7-percent-return">How I got a 15.7% return in 2015</a><br />
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But in a word: carefully selecting biotechnology stocks.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-7568644405949296162015-12-31T10:02:00.002-08:002015-12-31T10:02:49.775-08:00Celgene and Partners 2016 outlookI finally got around to finishing an article on Celgene. My research confirmed my belief that Celgene should at least double by the end of 2020 ("should" means the most likely path, not certainty). Seeking Alpha was kind enough to publish it:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3784256-celgene-catalysts-for-2016">Celgene Catalysts for 2016</a><br />
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One interesting point that I did not belabor in the article is, in addition, investing in the companies Celgene is investing in or partnering with. This is a double-edged sword. Because the companies are much smaller and are development-stage companies, the potential return, if they are successful in getting FDA approvals for their therapies, are much larger than Celgene's. Against that weigh that they mostly already have significant market capitalizations, so they are valued as if there is some certainty of some degree of success. (Probability of approval, times potential earnings per year, times a potential P/E ratio, should equal market cap). <br />
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So Celgene is likely to rise at least gradually because of ramping sales of currently approved products, plus any pipeline approvals. But the partners could fall dramatically if their therapies fail to show clinical results that warrant FDA approvals. And that could happen any time.<br />
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One of the main investment themes for me in 2015 was researching these Celgene partnerships and investing in a few of them. Because I was not in a hurry I was able to buy them during the Hillary Dip. Do your research and keep in mind the risks before buying at any price. But here are the ones I added to my portfolio:<br />
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Acceleron (XLRN)<br />
Agios (AGIO)<br />
Epizyme (EPZM)<br />
Juno Therapeutics (JUNO)<br />
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To see all my biotechnology positions, with links to my notes on the stocks, try:<br />
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<a href="http://www.openicon.com/biotech/biotech_main.html">William Meyers Biotechnology Picks</a><br />
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This weekend I hope to write up an analysis of how my portfolio did in 2015. Right now it looks like about 16% to 17%, but I won't know exactly until the market closes. I'm going to submit my analysis to Seeking Alpha. If they don't publish it, I'll post it here.<br />
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Happy New Year!<br />
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William P. Meyers<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike>William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-5752350514515977692015-12-09T11:14:00.000-08:002015-12-09T11:14:26.085-08:00Alnylam, Celsion, Protalix, and Agios Pharmaceuticals"Its been a long time, been a long time, been a long time ..."<br />
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Yesterday Seeking Alpha published my latest research and opinion on Alnylam (ALNY):<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3741086-why-alnylam-should-be-a-big-mover-in-2016">Why Alnylam Should Be a Big Mover in 2016</a><br />
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I first bought Alnylam on October 6, 2015 at $75.13. As I write it is at $100.57. I have followed Alnylam for some time, so that run up is not a display of genius. I took advantage of the Hillary Clinton biotech swoon to buy ALNY at a reduced price. As I note in the article, Alnylam is priced as if it already has commercial revenue and profits, when in fact it is a developmental stage company. Failure of its drug candidates in trials could made $75 per share look ridiculously high. But its platform can generate many therapies, making it a possible tenner if you can wait a decade.<br />
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What else have I bought since I last wrote?<br />
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Acceleron (XLRN) at $22.48 on October 14, 2015<br />Celsion (CLSN) at $1.81 on November 16, 2015<br />Protalix (PLX) at $1.05 on November 18, 2015<br />Star Bulk (SBLK) at $0.98 on November 20, 2015<br />Agios (AGIO) at $50.31 on December 7, 2015.<br />
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The only sale I made during the period was Ocata (OCAT), and that is because it was being acquired anyway. I bought OCAT at $5.12 in July and at $3.84 in August. I meant it as another long-term investment. I sold it at $8.48 on December 2, a bit below the buy-out price of $8.50.<br />
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My purchases listed above were small even by my standards, mainly just reinvesting the Ocata funds.<br />
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The bulk of my portfolio remains in the larger companies: Gilead, Celgene, Biogen, Amgen, and Mylan.<br />
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I continue to believe that, for long-term investors, most biotechnology stocks are underpriced right now. While I agree that some government regulation of the most predatory companies may be appropriate, and might even happen, I believe that innovative companies that create therapies valuable to patients should continue to be able to provide better-than-market returns to investors. I believe during patent protection periods pricing should be up to the patent holders. Of course if Medicare or Medicaid feel those prices are too high, they should be able to refuse to pay for the patent-protected therapies, or negotiate a mutually agreeable price. <br />
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Even in a Hillary Clinton administration with Democratic majorities in Congress, I believe there is little chance that the current system will undergo anything other than minor tweaks.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-16843963841648683192015-10-06T13:39:00.001-07:002015-10-06T13:39:07.229-07:00Positions Update; bought Alnylam PharmaceuticalsThe biotech meltdown has continued since my last post, mostly due to downgrades of certain stocks, but in the case of Illumina (ILMN), because of an earnings pre-announcement today. I did not buy, but ILMN is getting to a tempting level.<br />
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I've been buying selectively, but looked at my <a href="http://www.openicon.com/positions.html">Openicon positions</a> page today and noted it is sadly out of date. So I fixed it up. Click on the link and you can see what I currently own with further links to my notes and Seeking Alpha articles.<br />
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My only new company is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) which I bought today for $75.13 per share. This is a mostly early-clinical stage company working with RNAi therapy. I've been watching it some time, but too much profit was built into the stock price for me. It could still go lower, especially if negative clinical results come in, but I was comfortable, even pleased, at the price I bought at. It is a stock for investors with a 3 to 10 year time horizon. <br />
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I also added to three positions I already had, again because the price was right by my lights:<br />
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Gilead Sciences (GILD) on September 28<br />
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Mylan (MYL) on September 28<br />
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Merrimack (MACK) on October 1.<br />
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I am looking forward to Q3 earnings calls.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-74840071158523637152015-09-25T16:23:00.002-07:002015-09-25T16:23:31.337-07:00Just my luck: the Hillary Clinton biotechnology meltdownBefore looking at the biotechnology meltdown, I'll review my trades since my last report on September 12: <br />
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I sold my few shares of Adept Technology (ADEP) because it is being bought out by a Japanese company for $13.00 per share; I took $12.93 rather than wait. I had bought the shares in May for $5.92 per share, so no complaints except that if I had had a crystal ball I would have bought a lot more shares and probably some options too.<br />
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With my vast wealth I bought small amounts of:<br />
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<b>Medivation</b> (MDVN) at $50.66 per share<br />
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<b>Juno Therapeutics</b> (JUNO) at $37.36 per share <br />
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and added to my <b>Agenus Bio</b> (AGEN) position for $5.44 per share.<br />
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Medivation and Agenus are already down substantially, but Juno is up a notch. I'm not worried, they were all bargains at the prices I paid and I'll be laughing at the panicky sellers in a couple of years. Agenus in particular has an amazing platform that is going to wow people in 2016 and 2017.<br />
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Lots of tempting stuff by the end of the day, especially the companies that are already profitable and not dependent on clinical trial results or FDA approval.<br />
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<b>Gilead</b> (GILD) is ridiculously undervalued. Cash from operations will continue to flow in, as we'll see when Q3 is reported, and they will continue to buy back stock (as well as pay a nice dividend). It is the opportunity of a lifetime. Don't say no one told you so. Based on trailing earnings GILD is trading at a P/E of 11.4, which means earnings are <b>8.8% per year and growing</b>. The Hepatitis C cash will keep rolling in as more nations in Europe and elsewhere approve reimbursements.<br />
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Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton I'm sure has good intent, and yes, sometimes pharmaceutical companies gouge their customers. But she is complaining when the Orphan Drug laws are doing exactly what they were supposed to do: encourage companies to develop new drugs, which after their patents expire will go generic.<br />
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Could the market use some regulation? Perhaps, but I think that except in a few cases the payers and patients can simply not pay prices they think are unfair. Take Gilead's Harvoni. If there are cheaper alternatives (taking into account effectiveness and the cost of side effects), consumers would choose them. But Harvoni is priced fairly compared to prior, less effective treatments with worse side effects. Even the strict European regulators think Harvoni is worth the cost. I doubt Gilead has anything to fear from Hillary Clinton.<br />
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This is especially true when you look at political reality. Given the boost that biotech firms give the economies of California and Massachusetts, their congressional delegations are not going to support draconian legislation. Neither are most republicans. Any actual signed legislation will be to make the public feel good while having little impact on most of the drugs most companies sell.<br />
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The smartest thing Hillary Clinton (or whomever becomes President) could do for health care would be to use government funds to accelerate the eradication of Hepatitis C (and B) because that would eventually mean no new cases, which would be a great savings to individuals, insurance companies, and Medicare.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-52954877268105055282015-09-12T12:55:00.000-07:002015-09-12T12:55:22.607-07:00Juno TherapeuticsWhen I sat down to write about Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) I thought it would take me about two hours. Instead I found it took about 8 hours, spread over a couple of weeks. Juno has the poorest web presentation of data of any biotechnology company I can remembering researching. Add to that that it has a number of therapies in Phase 1, each with poorly presented data, and the novelty of their platform (CAR-T) to me, and it was a struggle. You can read what I wrote at Seeking Alpha:<br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3498386-juno-therapeutics-celgene-partnership-and-car-t-pipeline-value">Juno Therapeutics: Celgene Partnership And CAR-T Pipeline Value</a><br />
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So far I have not bought any Juno stock, but I do own Celgene (CELG), which now owns a substantial amount of JUNO.<br />
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I last updated this blog on August 25. Since then I added to three of my positions, but nothing since 9/3/2015:<br />
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OCAT<br />
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SGEN<br />
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MCHP<br />
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You can find my basic analysis of Seattle Genetics and Microchip at <span id="goog_1062262671"></span><a href="http://www.openicon.com/">Openicon<span id="goog_1062262672"></span></a> and at <a href="http://www.seekingalpha.com/">Seeking Alpha</a>. I haven't written about Ocata Therapeutics yet, but others have written about it at Seeking Alpha, and I'll get to it some day. September is a very busy month for me, so it is not actually on the schedule yet. Another stock I will write about soon is Agios (AGIO), which is another Celgene partner. I don't own any Agios at this time, but would be considering buying it at the time I do the research for the article.<br />
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My investment portfolio is so small that my buying or selling stock generally only affects the price for a few milliseconds.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-83893539569522869282015-08-25T12:00:00.000-07:002015-08-25T12:00:23.603-07:00Cashing in Dot HIll,Cantel Medical, Buying BiotechsI did not foresee the China mini-crisis. But I watched with fascination. Because I had little cash in my account, on August 12 I raised cash by selling my Cantel Medical (CMN) stock, all of it. Cantel is a great company making infection control devices. When I bought it in December of 2009 for $19.58 per share, after hearing about it at Seeking Alpha, it seemed undervalued to me. Since then it split 3 for 2 twice, and when I sold it I got $54.02 per share. No complaints there, it is just a valuation call.<br />
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Before I could reinvest that money, Seagate (STX) announced it would buy Dot Hill (HILL). Rather than wait for the transaction to close I sold my HILL at $9.685 per share on August 19. I first bought HILL in 2004 for $7.18 per share. That sounds less than brilliant, but I became a specialist in HILL, mostly selling high and buying low. It has been a very volatile stock. Most of the stock I sold in the end had been bought at $1.00 to $1.40 per share, though I had bought more at $5.67 as late as July 7.<br />
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I generally am a careful buyer, doing my homework before buying. But what a sale we have had! An opportunity to buy stocks I wanted, or wanted more of, at better prices. <br />
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So this is what I bought:<br />
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Star Bulk (SBLK) at $2.39. This is not a biotech.<br />
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Epizyme (EPZM) at $15.60.<br />
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Gilead (GILD) at $109.18<br />
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Amgen (AMGN) at $151.45<br />
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GlycoMimetics (GLYC) at $6.84<br />
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Inovio (INO) at $6.71<br />
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You can read what I think about each of these stocks by checking out <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/author/william-meyers/articles">William Meyers at Seeking Alpha</a>.<br />
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An even higher level of detail is available at my site, <a href="http://www.openicon.com/">openicon.com.</a><br />
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Unfortunately I missed the super Door Busters sale of the opening minutes of Monday the 24th. It is a sort of vacation like week for me and I thought the market would open low and then drift lower during the day. Oh well. I still have quite a bit of the HILL cash and will try to invest it carefully in biotechs, but before they start shooting up too high again. <br />
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Keep diversified!William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-31544720673165395012015-08-12T10:04:00.000-07:002015-08-12T10:04:48.513-07:00Rough Days and InovioI continue to think that Inovio (INO) is one of the great biotechnology stories of our era. I have a new article out at Seeking Alpha on it: <br />
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<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3429576-why-inovio-surged-26-percent-on-august-9" target="_blank">Why Inovio Surged 26% on August 9</a><br />
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I just looked at my calendar and realize that should be August 10! Pretty funny!<br />
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Let me quote Dr. Kim: "We already have, and expect to soon show, many further accomplishments and advancements." When I interviewed him in July he made similar statements. The rules of biotech are that you have to announce that the data will be presented in a journal or at a medical conference. But the data is accumulating.<br />
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Like most of the stock market, Inovio sold off on August 11 and so far today. It's August, many of the big players are on vacation, and the Chinese have created uncertainty. Since most of the biotech companies sell most of their therapies in the U.S. and Europe, I am not worried. If the yuan were allowed to float, it would have floated down.<br />
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Of more concern is insurance companies, instead of doctors, deciding what drugs patients will be treated with. I know some doctors are greedy to the point of being con artists, but most try hard to get the specific drug to a specific patient with specific circumstances. It makes no long term sense to deny patients Hepatitis C therapies until they suffer detectable liver damage. It makes no sense for insurance clerks to decide what MS treatment is best for patients. Insurance companies have a legitimate right to monitor doctors to make sure they are not running up fraudulent bills, but denying patients the meds they need is criminal and should result in punitive measures by the courts.<br />
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On the other hand, some of the biotechs that I thought were too pricy just back in July have snapped back towards reality. My latest buy was Epizyme (EPZM), and while almost all my cash is at work, I am thinking of picking up some more small cap and mid cap biotechs during this fire sale.William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3564801574072334648.post-66610093728087173342015-07-26T09:26:00.000-07:002015-07-26T09:26:11.290-07:00Buying flurry: Dot Hill, Star Bulk, Ocata Therapeutics, Acceleron, BiogenIt is earnings season so I am very busy, so I am behind in updating followers on my trades.<br />
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If you want to read the notes I make on the analyst conferences of the stocks I follow, you can find a list of the stocks with links at: <a href="http://www.openicon.com/confsums/listcos.html" target="_blank">Meyers Analyst Conference List</a><br />
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I only sold once stock lately, a bit of my <a href="http://www.celgene.com/" target="_blank">Celgene</a> (CELG) stock, because I had bought some extra when it dipped and then it went back up and exceeded my portfolio limit rules. My last two trades were buying on April 30, 2015 at $107.20 and then selling the same amount on July 15, 2015 for $132.99. Of course Celgene has risen since then, so I am fairly near my portfolio limit of 10% of any stock for Celgene. Check out Seeking Alpha for my Celgene articles.<br />
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I also added shares of <a href="http://www.dothill.com/" target="_blank">Dot Hill</a> (HILL) to my existing holdings at $6.28 on June 26, 2015 and at $5.67 on July 7, 2015. Dot Hill continues to do well with sales of its data storage systems and so I would not be surprised at another record year and the stock heading to $8.<br />
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I bought some <a href="http://www.starbulk.com/" target="_blank">Star Bulk</a> (SBLK) on July 16, 2015 for $2.99 because if the global economy revives a bit the demand for bulk shipping will too, and freight rates will hopefully come off their recent lows and reach levels that are profitable for shippers. It is off the beaten path for me and a risky investment because if rates stay low, it will continue to operate in the red.<br />
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On July 17, 2015 I bought an initial, tiny, position in <a href="http://www.ocata.com/" target="_blank">Ocata Therapeutics</a> (OCAT) pending further research.<br />
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On July 21, 2015 I bought an initial position in <a href="http://www.acceleronpharma.com/" target="_blank">Acceleron</a> (XLRN) because I was doing research for my article <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/3345325-acceleron-pharma-has-2-drug-candidates-that-could-become-blockbusters" target="_blank">Accleron Has Two Potential Blockbusters</a> for Seeking Alpha and I liked what I saw. Acceleron has a partnership with Celgene.<br />
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And finally, since I was quite cynical earlier in the year about <a href="http://www.biogen.com/" target="_blank">Biogen</a>'s (BIIB) Alzheimer's early data, the updated data gave me a favorable impression. I have owned BIIB since 2009 or so, but well below my portfolio limit due to its high P/E ratio. So I bought more BIIB on July 24, 2015 for $306.96. True, by the end of the day it had fallen a bit lower, but consider that its 52-week high had been $480.18 back on March 20, 2015. Really, not that much has changed since March, it shows you how dependent day-to-day auction prices are on emotion.<br />
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My general strategy is that I am a long-term investor. I may sell a stock when it had done so well that it exceeds my portfolio limits, or when I have other reason to think it has become so over valued it is no longer a good long-term investment.<br />
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Keep diversified!William P. Meyershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14258196216689767630noreply@blogger.com0