And another story published at Seeking Alpha:
Vertex Price and Prospects Compared to Alexion
In addition to Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and Alexion (ALXN), I discuss the controversy over Gilead's (GILD) pricing of its Hepatitis C cures. Vertex and Alexion are far more sensitive to the pricing issue than Gilead. However, Gilead already is overweight in my portfolio. I continue to consider Alexion and Vertex among my top choices if I add another stock to my list.
Mylan (MYL) and Dot Hill (HILL) both reported Q2 results and held analyst conferences this morning. Both disappointed the market. I remain long on both. Dot Hill in particular looks ready to ramp revenue nicely in the second half, but fell prey to traders who time horizon ranges from a microsecond to a few days.
My notes on today's conferences:
Dot Hill Analyst Conference & Results
Mylan Analyst Conference & Results
Showing posts with label Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Show all posts
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Monday, July 28, 2014
This week: Amgen, Vertex, Akamai ...
It's another heavy week of earnings reports for me.
First, some links to some of my summaries of analyst conferences held last week:
Celgene (CELG) reported strong earnings growth of 17% y/y on July 24. I am bullish on Celgene, given its potential to expand Revlimid revenue and its pipeline, but it is not cheap right now on a trailing earnings basis.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) had earnings up 56% y/y. I like Alexion's model, but again a lot of future earnings growth is already built into the present price.
Agenus (AGEN) is a small-cap, development-stage company focussed on immunology, including Check Point Modulators (CPMs). In the quarter Agenus reported good Phase 2 trial results and is looking to partner with larger companies to further develop these therapies. They already have a deal with Merck to create new CPMs, and one with GSK for a component for a malaria vaccine. Watch this company.
Altera (ALTR) had a good quarter with revenue up 17% from year earlier. I believe that FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) will continue to outgrow the overall semiconductor market, but put my money on rival Xilinx. Should have bet on Altera first; my intention was to buy both, and I still probably will.
The most interesting reports coming up this week (links are to pages where you can review past analyst conferences, if you like, and also linked to placeholder pages you can bookmark to get my summaries after the conferences take place):
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), as follows know, is my least favorite Nasdaq 100 biotechnology stock to invest in, not because they aren't doing wonders in their therapeutic field, but because the stock price builds in way to much success compared to other companies. But maybe Vertex will return to profitability some time this year.
Amgen (AMGN) is well-established biotechnology company. I'll be watching revenue and earnings, as well as pipeline development. At some point Amgen may run into generic "biosimilar" competition for some of its therapies. There will probably be some analyst questions about that, and I would like to here the answers.
Akamai (AKAM) accelerates the Internet. Again, a great company, but I would need a lower price point to convince me to buy back in.
Microchip (MCHP) is a semiconductor stock with a reliable dividend and continuing growth potential. It is a core of my portfolio, but I would not call it cheap at today's price.
I own CELG, AGEN, AMGN and MCHP, and reserve the right to sell them or buy more of any of them at any time.
I do not own ALXN, ALTR, AKAM, or VRTX, but reserve the right to buy them at any time, which would be highly dependent on pricing.
I am an investor, researcher and financial writer. The above express my opinion, and does not constitute financial advise.
First, some links to some of my summaries of analyst conferences held last week:
Celgene (CELG) reported strong earnings growth of 17% y/y on July 24. I am bullish on Celgene, given its potential to expand Revlimid revenue and its pipeline, but it is not cheap right now on a trailing earnings basis.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) had earnings up 56% y/y. I like Alexion's model, but again a lot of future earnings growth is already built into the present price.
Agenus (AGEN) is a small-cap, development-stage company focussed on immunology, including Check Point Modulators (CPMs). In the quarter Agenus reported good Phase 2 trial results and is looking to partner with larger companies to further develop these therapies. They already have a deal with Merck to create new CPMs, and one with GSK for a component for a malaria vaccine. Watch this company.
Altera (ALTR) had a good quarter with revenue up 17% from year earlier. I believe that FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) will continue to outgrow the overall semiconductor market, but put my money on rival Xilinx. Should have bet on Altera first; my intention was to buy both, and I still probably will.
The most interesting reports coming up this week (links are to pages where you can review past analyst conferences, if you like, and also linked to placeholder pages you can bookmark to get my summaries after the conferences take place):
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), as follows know, is my least favorite Nasdaq 100 biotechnology stock to invest in, not because they aren't doing wonders in their therapeutic field, but because the stock price builds in way to much success compared to other companies. But maybe Vertex will return to profitability some time this year.
Amgen (AMGN) is well-established biotechnology company. I'll be watching revenue and earnings, as well as pipeline development. At some point Amgen may run into generic "biosimilar" competition for some of its therapies. There will probably be some analyst questions about that, and I would like to here the answers.
Akamai (AKAM) accelerates the Internet. Again, a great company, but I would need a lower price point to convince me to buy back in.
Microchip (MCHP) is a semiconductor stock with a reliable dividend and continuing growth potential. It is a core of my portfolio, but I would not call it cheap at today's price.
I own CELG, AGEN, AMGN and MCHP, and reserve the right to sell them or buy more of any of them at any time.
I do not own ALXN, ALTR, AKAM, or VRTX, but reserve the right to buy them at any time, which would be highly dependent on pricing.
I am an investor, researcher and financial writer. The above express my opinion, and does not constitute financial advise.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
I Buy Regeneron; Comment on Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) has been down a bit lately, on talk of greater substitution of Avastin for Eylea, and today I finally dug into my cash and bought a tiny amount at $277.74 per share. Regeneron has a high P/E ratio, and all the dangers that implies. However, I think long-term prospects are quite good, and I don't think it likely I will be able to buy REGN much cheaper. If it goes down further, I may buy more.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) was the big winner today, up over 40% to end at $93.53. The news was that a new drug for cystic fibrosis had marginally positive results that may be good enough to get an FDA approval. I would not approve the drug based on the results if I sat on an FDA panel, but I don't. I also would not pay for such marginal benefits, especially given the price tags Vertex wants for its therapies. I think it is great they are working to help cystic fibrosis patients, but as an investor I am skeptical.
$118 million was how much revenue Vertex had in Q1. EPS was negative $1.00. Vertex might run up $500 million in sales this year, and probably at least that in losses.
So how do you justify a market capitalization of $22 billion with those numbers? By having the biggest Wall Street companies sing sweet songs about the future value of the pipeline.
Again, nothing against the company, and as long as the big boys can keep selling the stock to new fools, it might keep going up. But don't say I did not warn you about the danger. I believe in the power of therapeutic pipelines, that is why I bought Regeneron today and have owned BIIB, CELG, GILD and others for years. But I have seen big collapses when biotechnology pipelines did not deliver what sell-side brokers and analysts promised to gullible investors.
Another thing, how come Gilead (GILD) has been a sell according to many of the same people who are pushing Vertex? The story is Gilead's Hepatitis C drug is too expensive. But Gilead is selling a cure to a deadly disease for 85 thousand. Vertex, according to the new study, will be selling a drug that averages just 4% increase in lung volume (almost too low to detect) for over $100,000 per year. Why not worry about insurance company resistance to that kind of pricing?
Again, Vertex is a good company, and I would invest in its future at a reasonable price. But not today's price of $93.53 per share, and not even yesterday's price of $66.61. Not on current sales, and not on the trial data.
For my coverage, including summaries of analyst conferences and articles at Seeking Alpha, check out:
Regeneron (REGN)
Vertex (VRTX)
Gilead (GILD)
In any case, be sure to ... Keep Diversified!
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) was the big winner today, up over 40% to end at $93.53. The news was that a new drug for cystic fibrosis had marginally positive results that may be good enough to get an FDA approval. I would not approve the drug based on the results if I sat on an FDA panel, but I don't. I also would not pay for such marginal benefits, especially given the price tags Vertex wants for its therapies. I think it is great they are working to help cystic fibrosis patients, but as an investor I am skeptical.
$118 million was how much revenue Vertex had in Q1. EPS was negative $1.00. Vertex might run up $500 million in sales this year, and probably at least that in losses.
So how do you justify a market capitalization of $22 billion with those numbers? By having the biggest Wall Street companies sing sweet songs about the future value of the pipeline.
Again, nothing against the company, and as long as the big boys can keep selling the stock to new fools, it might keep going up. But don't say I did not warn you about the danger. I believe in the power of therapeutic pipelines, that is why I bought Regeneron today and have owned BIIB, CELG, GILD and others for years. But I have seen big collapses when biotechnology pipelines did not deliver what sell-side brokers and analysts promised to gullible investors.
Another thing, how come Gilead (GILD) has been a sell according to many of the same people who are pushing Vertex? The story is Gilead's Hepatitis C drug is too expensive. But Gilead is selling a cure to a deadly disease for 85 thousand. Vertex, according to the new study, will be selling a drug that averages just 4% increase in lung volume (almost too low to detect) for over $100,000 per year. Why not worry about insurance company resistance to that kind of pricing?
Again, Vertex is a good company, and I would invest in its future at a reasonable price. But not today's price of $93.53 per share, and not even yesterday's price of $66.61. Not on current sales, and not on the trial data.
For my coverage, including summaries of analyst conferences and articles at Seeking Alpha, check out:
Regeneron (REGN)
Vertex (VRTX)
Gilead (GILD)
In any case, be sure to ... Keep Diversified!
Friday, May 2, 2014
Celgene, Seagate, TTM, SGI and Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Another busy week. Here's my work that you can find for free online:
Celgene in 2015: $200 per share [at Seeking Alpha on April 29, 2014] which was partly based on my summary of the Celgene Q1 analyst call.
Other notes on quarter reports/analyst calls this week:
Seagate is muddling along, with a good (low) P/E ratio, good dividends, and ability to sustain or even grow the dividends as long as the world needs data storage.
TTM Technologies, the PCB (printed circuit board) manufacturer had a seasonally down Q1 but believes the second half of the year will be strong. The analysis here is that as TTMI generates cash and pays down the debt it used to acquire its Chinese factories, earnings will grow.
SGI continues to struggle. The stock price is too high to warrant my buying in (I closed my position
in January); a turn around is already priced in. But I just don't share SGI management's belief that they will do better in the second half.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is in disaster mode, but Wall Street is still treating it like it is already a Gilead or Celgene. Vertex is doing great work helping Cystic Fibrosis patients, but with its Hepatitis C franchise dead, I think it is way overpriced. Way, way over priced. Ridiculously overpriced. I say that as someone who frequently argues that drug pipelines are undervalued by investors.
Next week: Microchip, Hansen Medical, Regeneron, Dendreon and Dot Hill report.
Celgene in 2015: $200 per share [at Seeking Alpha on April 29, 2014] which was partly based on my summary of the Celgene Q1 analyst call.
Other notes on quarter reports/analyst calls this week:
Seagate is muddling along, with a good (low) P/E ratio, good dividends, and ability to sustain or even grow the dividends as long as the world needs data storage.
TTM Technologies, the PCB (printed circuit board) manufacturer had a seasonally down Q1 but believes the second half of the year will be strong. The analysis here is that as TTMI generates cash and pays down the debt it used to acquire its Chinese factories, earnings will grow.
SGI continues to struggle. The stock price is too high to warrant my buying in (I closed my position
in January); a turn around is already priced in. But I just don't share SGI management's belief that they will do better in the second half.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is in disaster mode, but Wall Street is still treating it like it is already a Gilead or Celgene. Vertex is doing great work helping Cystic Fibrosis patients, but with its Hepatitis C franchise dead, I think it is way overpriced. Way, way over priced. Ridiculously overpriced. I say that as someone who frequently argues that drug pipelines are undervalued by investors.
Next week: Microchip, Hansen Medical, Regeneron, Dendreon and Dot Hill report.
Friday, January 31, 2014
Illumina, Biogen Idec, Vertex, Celgene and Alexion Analyst Call notes
I listened to the analyst conference calls and posted my notes at OpenIcon for the following biotechnology companies that reported earlier this week (follow links for details):
Illumina
Biogen Idec
Vertex
Celgene
Alexion
Of these stocks, I already own Biogen Idec (BIIB) and Celgene (CELG). Illumina and Alexion are doing very well, but I am put off by their prices.
Vertex (VRTX) is not doing well at all, and is overpriced. It's Hepatitis C therapy is being wiped out of the market by newer drugs. It has a pipeline of potential candidates, but is priced as if they were guaranteed approval by the FDA. As is often the case, this is a good company, but with Wall Street firms supporting the price and pushing it to investors, it is way overpriced. I don't short stocks, but if I did Vertex would be on my short list.
Keep diversified!
Illumina
Biogen Idec
Vertex
Celgene
Alexion
Of these stocks, I already own Biogen Idec (BIIB) and Celgene (CELG). Illumina and Alexion are doing very well, but I am put off by their prices.
Vertex (VRTX) is not doing well at all, and is overpriced. It's Hepatitis C therapy is being wiped out of the market by newer drugs. It has a pipeline of potential candidates, but is priced as if they were guaranteed approval by the FDA. As is often the case, this is a good company, but with Wall Street firms supporting the price and pushing it to investors, it is way overpriced. I don't short stocks, but if I did Vertex would be on my short list.
Keep diversified!
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Agenus, Biogen Idec, Seagate and Vertex Q3 results and calls
You can look at my notes on September quarter results and analyst calls from Agenus (AGEN) , Biogen Idec (BIIB), Seagate (STX) and Vertex (VRTX) if you like:
Agenus Q3 analyst call
Biogen Idec Q3 analyst call
Seagate Q3 analyst call
Vertex Q3 analyst call
I don't own any Vertex stock. I have owned Biogen Idec stock since 2008. I have owned Seagate stock since June 2012.
This is my first coverage of Agenus. I bought a small initial amount of AGEN in September and bought a like amount this morning. Agenus is a development-stage biotechnology stock, with no regular income source, though it has received some revenue from achieved milestones at partners. It should be considered a very risky investment. I hope to write up Agenus at Seeking Alpha very soon (I finished my Microsoft project, but got behind on so many things during it ...)
This afternoon I will be taking notes on Gilead, a company I have owned since 2007. I'm going to post the link even though no data is there yet:
Gilead Q3 analyst call
Keep in mind that anyone can listen to the analyst call of traded companies. Usually only buy-side (Wall Street) analysts can ask questions. You can listen by telephone or by web streaming. I always listen to at least one conference before buying a stock. The notes I post contain what is important to me, and can be read it a minute or two, but are not really meant to substitute for the full conference.
Agenus Q3 analyst call
Biogen Idec Q3 analyst call
Seagate Q3 analyst call
Vertex Q3 analyst call
I don't own any Vertex stock. I have owned Biogen Idec stock since 2008. I have owned Seagate stock since June 2012.
This is my first coverage of Agenus. I bought a small initial amount of AGEN in September and bought a like amount this morning. Agenus is a development-stage biotechnology stock, with no regular income source, though it has received some revenue from achieved milestones at partners. It should be considered a very risky investment. I hope to write up Agenus at Seeking Alpha very soon (I finished my Microsoft project, but got behind on so many things during it ...)
This afternoon I will be taking notes on Gilead, a company I have owned since 2007. I'm going to post the link even though no data is there yet:
Gilead Q3 analyst call
Keep in mind that anyone can listen to the analyst call of traded companies. Usually only buy-side (Wall Street) analysts can ask questions. You can listen by telephone or by web streaming. I always listen to at least one conference before buying a stock. The notes I post contain what is important to me, and can be read it a minute or two, but are not really meant to substitute for the full conference.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Analysis of Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) added
I am now watching and analyzing each of the biotechnology companies in the Nasdaq 100. My latest add is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX):
Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Dog of the Nasdaq 100 Biotechs [at Seeking Alpha]
You can also read my Q2 2013 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Analyst Call Notes
My main page for Vertex will be Vertex Pharmaceuticals at OpenIcon.com
Note I am not saying Vertex is a bad company. They had a bad piece of luck not getting their Hepatitis C therapy to market earlier. They will do fine in the long run. The other Nasdaq 100 biotechs are a tough lot to be in competition with.
Next, I'll start on the smaller, undervalued biotechs, but I'll go back to some of my favorite information technology stocks too.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Dog of the Nasdaq 100 Biotechs [at Seeking Alpha]
You can also read my Q2 2013 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Analyst Call Notes
My main page for Vertex will be Vertex Pharmaceuticals at OpenIcon.com
Note I am not saying Vertex is a bad company. They had a bad piece of luck not getting their Hepatitis C therapy to market earlier. They will do fine in the long run. The other Nasdaq 100 biotechs are a tough lot to be in competition with.
Next, I'll start on the smaller, undervalued biotechs, but I'll go back to some of my favorite information technology stocks too.
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