Friday, October 18, 2013

AMD and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 conference notes

I listened to the AMD and Intuitive Surgical analyst conference calls yesterday.

You can read my notes following these links:

AMD Q3 2013 analyst conference call

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 2013 analyst conference call

Market behavior this morning, following these results, is interesting. AMD actually beat its prior guidance, but the stock plunged, down 12.5% as I write. Which would seem to mean that at least some investors thought AMD would do even better. In any case AMD was in the black in Q3, both on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, and has big plans for 2014. Following up on its wins for the processors of all 3 major game consoles, AMD has a pipeline of potential large volume deals for its SoCs (System on Chips). On the other hand, management made it clear that it can't promise profitability in Q1 or Q2 of 2014 because those quarters are typically slow for consumer electronics.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) missed guidance and reduced guidance for the full year. It also fell this morning, but currently at a less frightening but still significant 4.5%. Intuitive had high growth rates since it first brought its surgical robots to market, but now has hit y/y declines because of adverse publicity, market saturation in at least one key surgical procedure, and hospitals being more cautious about capital equipment spending.

I own some AMD stock and would like to accumulate more, if the price is right. AMD is having trouble with its traditional microprocessor business, but is smartly ramping up products that don't compete head to head with Intel. It will be a long, slow march to making serious profits that can pay off debt and eventually even be distributed to shareholders, hence the low stock price.

I don't own ISRG but would like to start accumulating it. Whether I actually buy any depends on the price (hopefully even lower), the other possible uses of cash, and any changes in my opinion of its future.

I am way busy with higher-priority projects right now so I don't know when I will write up more detailed analysis of these companies for Seeking Alpha, but I hope to at some point.

Keep diversified!

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