First, I hope everyone has much to give thanks for this Thanksgiving.
I would like to point out that Mylan (MYL) made a new 52-week high today.
My Mylan: Deeply Undervalued On Unwarranted Approval Concerns was published by Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2014. Before I had submitted the article, on August 25, 2014, Mylan closed at $48.30.
I am writing before the close today, right now Mylan is at $58.80, after hitting $59.12 earlier in the day. That is not a bad return on about 3 months of not working.
Things can go wrong, we are still waiting for permission to sell generic Copaxone, but I still believe the most likely path if for Mylan to be at about $100 per share by the end of 2015.
I own shares in Mylan as well as a number of other medicine companies. This article constitutes journalism and shameless self promotion, not financial advice. Be sure to read all my posts here and Seeking Alpha articles, but keep in mind I make mistakes sometimes, so think for yourself.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Biogen Idec; Hansen Medical
I realized my expertise in Biogen Idec (BIIB) had gotten out-of-date, spent a day doing research, and wrote it up. It was published at Seeking Alpha yesterday:
Biogen Idec, PML Deaths, and Hemophilia Therapies
Writing a summary article about a large biotechnology company presents some difficulties. This article was longer than most people will read. Yet I had to be very selective about the current drugs and pipeline that I covered in any detail. There always has to be room to discuss whether the stock is at an attractive price, given the likely future path of earnings.
Checking my records, I originally bought BIIB for $61.57 on 2/6/2008, when I was first beginning to shift my attention from information technology to biotechnology. I accumulated BIIB for a while, but in 2012 sold half my holdings at $137.19, thinking the P/E had gotten too high. As you know, despite fluctuations, the general trend has tended up. As I write it is trading at $301.56. I think Biogen is again attractively priced, but it is already about 6% of my holdings, so I am just watching for now.
Hansen Medical (HNSN) is an entirely different matter. I bought some today at $0.80 per share, which is about as low as it has ever been. I have owned some since 2009, but sold some for $2.35 earlier this year. For perhaps a variety of reasons Hansen just can't seem to actually sell very many of their robotic catheter surgical machines. They keep announcing new procedures the machines can do, in particular the Magellan machine designed for peripheral vascular procedures. Today they announced the first successful use of Magellan in the U.S. to do a prostatic artery embolization procedure for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia. Which translates to a safe and effective procedure to treat enlarged prostate glands, which affect about 75% of men by the time they reach 80 years of age. It could be big, but of course it competes with other types of surgery as well as with drugs as treatment options.
That said, if past sales of Hansen surgical robots is an indicator, even $0.80 is not cheap. But there have been lots of field tests of Magellan, so maybe Q4 will surprise us with more than token sales.
Biogen Idec, PML Deaths, and Hemophilia Therapies
Writing a summary article about a large biotechnology company presents some difficulties. This article was longer than most people will read. Yet I had to be very selective about the current drugs and pipeline that I covered in any detail. There always has to be room to discuss whether the stock is at an attractive price, given the likely future path of earnings.
Checking my records, I originally bought BIIB for $61.57 on 2/6/2008, when I was first beginning to shift my attention from information technology to biotechnology. I accumulated BIIB for a while, but in 2012 sold half my holdings at $137.19, thinking the P/E had gotten too high. As you know, despite fluctuations, the general trend has tended up. As I write it is trading at $301.56. I think Biogen is again attractively priced, but it is already about 6% of my holdings, so I am just watching for now.
Hansen Medical (HNSN) is an entirely different matter. I bought some today at $0.80 per share, which is about as low as it has ever been. I have owned some since 2009, but sold some for $2.35 earlier this year. For perhaps a variety of reasons Hansen just can't seem to actually sell very many of their robotic catheter surgical machines. They keep announcing new procedures the machines can do, in particular the Magellan machine designed for peripheral vascular procedures. Today they announced the first successful use of Magellan in the U.S. to do a prostatic artery embolization procedure for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia. Which translates to a safe and effective procedure to treat enlarged prostate glands, which affect about 75% of men by the time they reach 80 years of age. It could be big, but of course it competes with other types of surgery as well as with drugs as treatment options.
That said, if past sales of Hansen surgical robots is an indicator, even $0.80 is not cheap. But there have been lots of field tests of Magellan, so maybe Q4 will surprise us with more than token sales.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Recent Trades: Gilead and Dot Hill
In the interest of transparency, since I am a financial journalist, I note that I made the following trades recently:
Dot Hill (HILL). I sold a small amount of HILL because it exceeded my usual 10% limit on share of portfolio. It sold for $4.57 on November 14, 2014. I had bought these particular shares on December 4, 2009 for $1.78 per share. I note that Dot Hill provided strong guidance for Q4 2014 and hinted that 2015 quarters should be closer to the Q4 run rate than was typical in the past. I am bullish on Dot Hill, but note it has missed guidance for various reasons in the past. See my Dot Hill Q3 Analyst Summary.
Gilead Sciences (GILD). Even though Gilead now takes up about 15% of my portfolio, I bought more this morning for $100.62 per share. I believe 2015 earnings will be in the vicinity of $10 per share. I believe the reason the price of the shares is so low is that institutional investors owned most of the shares, and as the price rose they had to start shedding shares to keep within their own portfolio limit rules. I believe competition for cures for Hepatitis C will be weak, and that public pressure will force insurers and the government to stop rationing Harvoni. Hepatitis C is infectious; it is bad health policy to not cure as many people as possible as early as possible in their disease course. See my Gilead Q3 analyst summary.
My buys and sells should not be construed as financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions with other writers and investors.
Dot Hill (HILL). I sold a small amount of HILL because it exceeded my usual 10% limit on share of portfolio. It sold for $4.57 on November 14, 2014. I had bought these particular shares on December 4, 2009 for $1.78 per share. I note that Dot Hill provided strong guidance for Q4 2014 and hinted that 2015 quarters should be closer to the Q4 run rate than was typical in the past. I am bullish on Dot Hill, but note it has missed guidance for various reasons in the past. See my Dot Hill Q3 Analyst Summary.
Gilead Sciences (GILD). Even though Gilead now takes up about 15% of my portfolio, I bought more this morning for $100.62 per share. I believe 2015 earnings will be in the vicinity of $10 per share. I believe the reason the price of the shares is so low is that institutional investors owned most of the shares, and as the price rose they had to start shedding shares to keep within their own portfolio limit rules. I believe competition for cures for Hepatitis C will be weak, and that public pressure will force insurers and the government to stop rationing Harvoni. Hepatitis C is infectious; it is bad health policy to not cure as many people as possible as early as possible in their disease course. See my Gilead Q3 analyst summary.
My buys and sells should not be construed as financial advise. I am just sharing my opinions with other writers and investors.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Celgene and Agenus
Just some catch-up notes. I have spent most of my time lately looking at quarter results and listening to analyst conferences. Next week that finally lets up and I should be able to start doing some analysis. The articles will appear at Seeking Alpha, or if rejected there, at this blog.
Recent trades:
Just two. I sold a small amount of Celgene (CELG) to bring it back within my portfolio rules limiting each stock to 10% of my tiny portfolio. I had bought these shares for $52.40 on 1/28/2011 and sold them for $102.21 on 10/24/2014.
I added a small amount of Agenus (AGEN) on 11/3/2014. Agenus has a lot of potential in immuno-oncology, including checkpoint modulators, that is not reflected in its market capitalization. But it is also a very risky stock, with only one near-term approval likely, and that probably not a big revenue generator because it is just one component licensed for a malaria vaccine.
You can see a list of stocks I own at the Openicon portfolio page.
Notes on recent Analyst Conferences:
Amgen
Gilead
Vertex
TTM Technologies
SGI
Akamai
Seattle Genetics
Mylan
Microchip
Agenus
Regeneron
Adept Technology
Disclosure: In addition to Celgene and Agenus, I own Amgen, Gilead, TTM, Mylan, and Microchip. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock listed on this page at any time. [As opposed to when I write articles, in which case I do forgo the right to trade for a couple of days in the stocks analyzed].
Recent trades:
Just two. I sold a small amount of Celgene (CELG) to bring it back within my portfolio rules limiting each stock to 10% of my tiny portfolio. I had bought these shares for $52.40 on 1/28/2011 and sold them for $102.21 on 10/24/2014.
I added a small amount of Agenus (AGEN) on 11/3/2014. Agenus has a lot of potential in immuno-oncology, including checkpoint modulators, that is not reflected in its market capitalization. But it is also a very risky stock, with only one near-term approval likely, and that probably not a big revenue generator because it is just one component licensed for a malaria vaccine.
You can see a list of stocks I own at the Openicon portfolio page.
Notes on recent Analyst Conferences:
Amgen
Gilead
Vertex
TTM Technologies
SGI
Akamai
Seattle Genetics
Mylan
Microchip
Agenus
Regeneron
Adept Technology
Disclosure: In addition to Celgene and Agenus, I own Amgen, Gilead, TTM, Mylan, and Microchip. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock listed on this page at any time. [As opposed to when I write articles, in which case I do forgo the right to trade for a couple of days in the stocks analyzed].
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