I have a new post at Seeking Alpha:
Dendreon Revenue and Cost Trends
You can also look at my note from the Dendreon (DNDN) Q2 2013 Analyst Conference Call
I have owned Dendreon stock since 2005 and its been a lesson in how badly the market prices stocks. Which is to say, The Market is just a bunch of humans, most of whom grew up well-off and like the English aristocracy of old, barely no how to dress themselves. They let the herd think for them, and constantly overprice and underprice stocks. Which means an individual investor can take money from them pretty easily if: you do a good job at research and analysis; you keep your emotions in check; you keep in mind that the world is a chaotic place; you are patient; you keep diversified.
In particular with Dendreon, when it finally got approval for Provenge for prostate cancer, a bunch of brokers who had never heard of Dendreon before hyped it to their clients, sending the price soaring to levels inconsistent with reality. I sold most of my stock then. As the price has fallen I have started accumulating DNDN again. I could lose my money, there is at least a 25% chance DNDN will go bankrupt by 2015, but I don't think so, as a say in my article.
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WE ARE AT $2.91 10 DAYS AFTER YOU WROTE THIS ARTICLE.. ANY CHANGES IN YOUR THOUGHTS AS TO BK IN 2015 OR WILL IT BE SOONER?...
ReplyDeleteAuction prices of the stock do not change my analysis. Real data about the company, like Provenge sales or how Dendreon is doing cutting costs, would change my analysis. There is no new real data that I know of since I wrote the article.
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