Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Mylan, Adept Technology updates

I have a new article at Seeking Alpha on generic drug manufacturer Mylan (MYL):

Mylan: Deeply Undervalued On Unwarranted Approval Concerns

I began following Mylan in earnest in Q2 of 2013. I first bought some Mylan on March 20, 2014. I expect Mylan to double by the end of 2015 (expect in the sense of the center of the probability curve. Results can vary).

This is a (thankfully) slow week, but on Monday Adept Technology (ADEP) reported disappointing results. My summary is Adept Technology Q2 2014 analyst conference notes. I would like to see this robotics company grow and reward investors, but I think it is overpriced at the moment. I first bought in November of 2012 for $3.95 when it was in an even worse situation than it is now. I bought it for as low as $2.94, but when it started to grow sales again some brokerages started hyping it and I sold for as high as $17.10, which was not even as high as it went before it plunged back down to reality, which today was $8.75 per share.

At $8.75 per share market cap is $114.6 million. But annualized revenue is only in the vicinity of $60 million, and ADEP remains in the red, though close to break even. If revenues double and profits ramp the $8.75 would be justified. Adept has a good, diverse robot product line, including robots for warehouse work, so it could happen. I'll continue to report on it, but to buy back in I would need to see a lower stock price or a quarter with over $18 million in revenue with some sort of guidance to a sequentially higher quarter.

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