Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Inovio and Dendreon Q3 analyst calls

I own stock in both Inovio (INO) and Dendreon (DNDN). Both reported Q3 2013 results on Tuesday.

You can read my notes on the results and analyst conferences at:

Inovio Q3 2013

Dendreon Q3 2013

Inovio had a good quarter on many fronts, probably justifying the huge leap in its stock price in the past year. It is a development-stage vaccine company, but is in partnership with Roche and apparently has the ability to make vaccines for just about anything, including cancer. Nevertheless, it has not yet had any FDA approvals,  and the risk of failure should be taken into account if you are thinking about investing.

Dendreon continues to struggle. Although Q3 revenue from Provenge was disappointing, they said that October was the best month for enrollments in 2013. So could Q4 come in at $80 million of revenue? No guidance was given, but between the approval in Europe and the

Dendreon's failure to capitalize on the first FDA-approved immunotherapy for cancer, Provenge for prostate cancer, had cast investor doubt on the entire immunotherapy for cancer field. In response to a question from an analyst, Inovio's CEO said if its therapy works and gains approval it would not have the high Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) that has plagued Dendreon. Inovio's therapy is more like its anti-viral vaccines, whereas Dendreon's therapy requires extracting blood from patients, activating T-cells, and then re-infusing the patients. Even at $100,000 per therapy Dendreon is losing money.

I am busy, busy, busy, so I don't know when I'll be able to write up these companies for Seeking Alpha. My last articles on them need updating, but there is still good background material in them:

Inovio's Price Spike and the Future of DNA Vaccines [August 17, 2013]

Dendreon Revenue and Cost Trends [August 13, 2013]

Keep diversified!

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