Many, but not all, analysts had a dim view of Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) at the beginning of 2012. Onyx had only one approved therapy, Nexavar for liver and kidney cancer. Between sharing Nexavar revenues with marketing partner Bayer and heavy R&D spending on new drugs and indications, Onyx ended in the red in most quarters.
What a difference a year makes. Onyx now had 4 approved indications and data that should earn approval for 2 more. A deeper pipeline exists as well. Its newly approved drug Kyprolis for MM (multiple myeloma) had revenues of $62 million, most of which would have been in the fourth quarter. This does not necessarily mean that Onyx will show a profit for Q4, but it does look like 2013 will be remarkably good, with 2014 even better.
The third approved therapy, and fourth approved indication, is Stivarga (formerly Regorafenib), which was also developed in conjunction with Bayer. Bayer will do the selling and Onyx will receive a 20% royalty, which will be cash that goes straight to the bottom line. Stivarga was approved in September 2012 for colorectal cancer patients who have been previously treated with currently available therapies. Royalties should ramp in 2013.
The fifth indication is Nexavar for iodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer. Again, Bayer will do the sales and share revenue with Onyx. The Phase III trial results are still to be submitted to the FDA, but approval is likely and revenue could commence in late 2013 or early 2014.
Sixth we have Stivarga for GIST, gastrointestinal stromal tumors.
So in 2013 we have a mid-sized biotechnology company with high expectations of multiple revenue ramps which should continue into 2014 and beyond.
Early in 2012 you could have bought ONXX at its 52-week low of $35.73. As I write the price is $81.41, or 128% above that. It already hit a 52 week high of $93.18.
I see Onyx as a company that will demonstrate its ability to generate revenue and profits during 2013 and 2014, but it is important to keep in mind how lengthy global cancer ramps can be. There is the whole rest of the world and even today Nexavar is still expanding into new nations for liver and kidney cancer, several years after introduction. Cancer approvals often start in second-line or later settings. Revenues can ramp significantly if the drugs can will approvals for administering to new, first-line patients.
Also, there has to be a lot of unrealized value in the management team. There are a lot of therapies out there to buy the rights to develop. Most drugs fails somewhere between Phase I trials and FDA approval. Onyx management, led by Anthony Coles, M.D., has done a remarkable job picking therapies and targets for development. It might be just luck, but it likely means they will do well with their earlier-stage pipeline and any future rights they acquire.
Onyx still has a very high P/E ratio, but that should drift down as profits ramp in 2013.
It looks to me like Onyx Pharmaceuticals is a stock to buy and hold for at least the remainder of this decade. If you can think that long-term.
Disclaimer: I am long ONXX and will not trade the stock for 3 days after the publication of this report.
William P. Meyers
See also:
www. onyx.com
My main Onyx Pharmaceuticals analyst conferences page.
My October 30, 2012 Onyx Q3 conference notes
Showing posts with label Bayer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bayer. Show all posts
Monday, January 7, 2013
Monday, November 21, 2011
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) Sees New Product Upside
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) was one of the few stocks that were up today, closing up $0.63 to $37.86. Still, it is well beneath it's 52-week high of $45.90.
Management thinks the full year will be non-GAAP EPS positive, based largely on a $160 million payment from Bayer this quarter. Bayer sells Onyx's Nexavar for kidney and liver cancer, splitting the after-costs profits. The $160 million was to buy-out the rights for Nexavar in Japan, which has been ramping up to be a lucrative market because of the high incidence of liver cancer there. This was part of a larger deal to end litigation for a Nexavar-related drug, Regorafenib. Under the settlement Onyx will get 20% royalties if the drug makes it to market.
Regorafenib recently had positive Phase III data for metastatic colorectal cancer. Like Nexavar, it appears it may be a useful therapy for a variety of cancers.
The predicted annual positive non-GAAP results were hard to predict before the deal announcement because in most quarters so far Onyx's own operating expenses have been sufficient to wipe out the receipts from Bayer. For Q1 non-GAAP net loss was $14.2 million, for Q2 net loss was $27.2 million, and for Q3 net loss was $19.5 million. One reason for the net losses is that both Bayer and Onyx have been spending large sums on running Nexavar through a set of clinical trials that have shown it may be effective for other forms of cancer, and to strengthen its role in liver caner. If you subtract out the research and development (R&D) costs, in most quarters Onyx would have shown a profit. Onyx has started recruiting patients for Nexavar Phase III trials for breast cancer and thyroid cancer, and has Phase II trials underway in colorectal and ovarian cancer.
Fortunately Onyx Pharmaceuticals has been able to maintain a high cash balance despite the regular losses, ending Q3 2011 at $530 million. Assuming the $160 million payment is a Q4 event, cash at the end of the year should approach $675 million.
I would not expect Regorafenib revenue until at least 2013, and like any drug it could fail for a currently unknown reason.
Carfilzomib is still the key to Onyx's value in the 2012 to 2015 time frame. Carfilzomib is a proteasome inhibitor that had positive data for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma in a Phase IIb trial. In fact the data was good enough that it is being submitted to the FDA for approval. At the same time two Phase III trials have been initiated. More detailed data from the Phase IIb trial will be presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting, December 10-13, 2011. While there is an outside possibility carfilzomib will not gain FDA approval, the main question is when it will get approval.
If both Regorafenib and carfilzomib are approved by the FDA, the nature of Onyx's model will change. It should be possible, starting in 2013, to have a vigorous R&D program to continue expanding the indications for Nexavar, carfilzomib and other pipeline candidates without actually throwing the bottom line into the red.
I believe that there is always risk in biotechnology stocks from competition, the need for FDA and other national medical agency approvals, and from failure to execute.
However, with expanded indications for Nexavar, plus likely revenues from carfilzomib and royalties on Regorafenib, in the next few years Onyx should become a highly profitable company. I do not think the current stock price reflects full value.
Disclosure: I am long Onyx Pharmaceutical. I have no plans to sell or buy ONXX in the immediate future.
Keep Diversified!
Management thinks the full year will be non-GAAP EPS positive, based largely on a $160 million payment from Bayer this quarter. Bayer sells Onyx's Nexavar for kidney and liver cancer, splitting the after-costs profits. The $160 million was to buy-out the rights for Nexavar in Japan, which has been ramping up to be a lucrative market because of the high incidence of liver cancer there. This was part of a larger deal to end litigation for a Nexavar-related drug, Regorafenib. Under the settlement Onyx will get 20% royalties if the drug makes it to market.
Regorafenib recently had positive Phase III data for metastatic colorectal cancer. Like Nexavar, it appears it may be a useful therapy for a variety of cancers.
The predicted annual positive non-GAAP results were hard to predict before the deal announcement because in most quarters so far Onyx's own operating expenses have been sufficient to wipe out the receipts from Bayer. For Q1 non-GAAP net loss was $14.2 million, for Q2 net loss was $27.2 million, and for Q3 net loss was $19.5 million. One reason for the net losses is that both Bayer and Onyx have been spending large sums on running Nexavar through a set of clinical trials that have shown it may be effective for other forms of cancer, and to strengthen its role in liver caner. If you subtract out the research and development (R&D) costs, in most quarters Onyx would have shown a profit. Onyx has started recruiting patients for Nexavar Phase III trials for breast cancer and thyroid cancer, and has Phase II trials underway in colorectal and ovarian cancer.
Fortunately Onyx Pharmaceuticals has been able to maintain a high cash balance despite the regular losses, ending Q3 2011 at $530 million. Assuming the $160 million payment is a Q4 event, cash at the end of the year should approach $675 million.
I would not expect Regorafenib revenue until at least 2013, and like any drug it could fail for a currently unknown reason.
Carfilzomib is still the key to Onyx's value in the 2012 to 2015 time frame. Carfilzomib is a proteasome inhibitor that had positive data for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma in a Phase IIb trial. In fact the data was good enough that it is being submitted to the FDA for approval. At the same time two Phase III trials have been initiated. More detailed data from the Phase IIb trial will be presented at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting, December 10-13, 2011. While there is an outside possibility carfilzomib will not gain FDA approval, the main question is when it will get approval.
If both Regorafenib and carfilzomib are approved by the FDA, the nature of Onyx's model will change. It should be possible, starting in 2013, to have a vigorous R&D program to continue expanding the indications for Nexavar, carfilzomib and other pipeline candidates without actually throwing the bottom line into the red.
I believe that there is always risk in biotechnology stocks from competition, the need for FDA and other national medical agency approvals, and from failure to execute.
However, with expanded indications for Nexavar, plus likely revenues from carfilzomib and royalties on Regorafenib, in the next few years Onyx should become a highly profitable company. I do not think the current stock price reflects full value.
Disclosure: I am long Onyx Pharmaceutical. I have no plans to sell or buy ONXX in the immediate future.
Keep Diversified!
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Gets $160 million for Nexavar, Plus Regorafenib Royalties
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) today announced it is receiving a major cash infusion at a time when it is transitioning from being a successful biotechnology startup into a major player. The cash, $160 million from Bayer, is for the Japanese rights for Nexavar, a cancer therapy. The deal is in the context of settling litigation about Regorafenib, an analog of Nexavar developed by Bayer. Onyx will receive a 20% royalty on future worldwide sales of Regorafenib.
Nexavar is sold by Bayer. Onyx, which discovered and co-developed the drug, gets a share of the profits after Bayer's expenses. But in most quarters so far Onyx's own operating expenses have been sufficient to wipe out the receipts from Bayer. An important treatment for liver and kidney cancer, sales of Nexavar continue to ramp globally. Liver cancer rates are far higher in Asia than in the West, but Asia is the last area Nexavar has become available, so sales are just beginning to ramp in China and other nations in the region.
Bayer and Onyx have been running Nexavar through a set of clinical trials that have shown it may be effective for other forms of cancer, and to strengthen its role in liver caner. If you subtract out these research and development (R&D) costs, in most quarters Onyx would have shown a profit. Onyx has started recruiting patients for Nexavar Phase III trials for breast cancer and thyroid cancer, and has Phase II trials underway in colorectal and ovarian cancer.
Fortunately Onyx Pharmaceuticals has been able to maintain a high cash balance despite the regular losses, ending Q2 2011 at $550 million. Assuming the $160 million payment is a Q4 event, cash at the end of the year should approach $700 million.
Regorafenib does not yet have its first FDA approval. It is in a Phase III trial for a type of stomach cancer, and will doubtless be tried for a variety of solid cancer types. I would not expect any revenue until 2014, and like any drug it could fail for a currently unknown reason, but the royalties are a great thing to have in Onyx's likely future.
Given the background of success with Nexavar, tempered with losses due to R&D spend, Carfilzomib is still the key to Onyx's value in the 2012 to 2015 time frame. Carfilzomib is a proteasome inhibitor that had positive data for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma in a Phase IIb trial. In fact the data was good enough that it is being submitted to the FDA for approval. At the same time two Phase III trials have been initiated.
If both Regorafenib and carfilzomib is approved by the FDA the nature of Onyx's model will change. It should be possible, starting in 2013, to have a vigorous R&D program to continue expanding the indications for Nexavar and carfilzomib without actually throwing the bottom line into the red.
Yesterday Onyx ended with a market capitalization of $2.0 billion, at $31.91 per share. As I write the market cap has risen to $2.15 billion, with the stock price at $33.80. I believe that there is always risk in biotechnology stocks from competition, the need for FDA and other national medical agency approvals, and from failure to execute.
Disclosure: I am long Onyx Pharmaceutical. I have no plans to sell or buy ONXX in the immediate future.
Keep Diversified!
See also my notes on the Q2 2011 Onyx Pharmaceuticals analyst call
Onyx Pharmaceuticals home page
Nexavar is sold by Bayer. Onyx, which discovered and co-developed the drug, gets a share of the profits after Bayer's expenses. But in most quarters so far Onyx's own operating expenses have been sufficient to wipe out the receipts from Bayer. An important treatment for liver and kidney cancer, sales of Nexavar continue to ramp globally. Liver cancer rates are far higher in Asia than in the West, but Asia is the last area Nexavar has become available, so sales are just beginning to ramp in China and other nations in the region.
Bayer and Onyx have been running Nexavar through a set of clinical trials that have shown it may be effective for other forms of cancer, and to strengthen its role in liver caner. If you subtract out these research and development (R&D) costs, in most quarters Onyx would have shown a profit. Onyx has started recruiting patients for Nexavar Phase III trials for breast cancer and thyroid cancer, and has Phase II trials underway in colorectal and ovarian cancer.
Fortunately Onyx Pharmaceuticals has been able to maintain a high cash balance despite the regular losses, ending Q2 2011 at $550 million. Assuming the $160 million payment is a Q4 event, cash at the end of the year should approach $700 million.
Regorafenib does not yet have its first FDA approval. It is in a Phase III trial for a type of stomach cancer, and will doubtless be tried for a variety of solid cancer types. I would not expect any revenue until 2014, and like any drug it could fail for a currently unknown reason, but the royalties are a great thing to have in Onyx's likely future.
Given the background of success with Nexavar, tempered with losses due to R&D spend, Carfilzomib is still the key to Onyx's value in the 2012 to 2015 time frame. Carfilzomib is a proteasome inhibitor that had positive data for relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma in a Phase IIb trial. In fact the data was good enough that it is being submitted to the FDA for approval. At the same time two Phase III trials have been initiated.
If both Regorafenib and carfilzomib is approved by the FDA the nature of Onyx's model will change. It should be possible, starting in 2013, to have a vigorous R&D program to continue expanding the indications for Nexavar and carfilzomib without actually throwing the bottom line into the red.
Yesterday Onyx ended with a market capitalization of $2.0 billion, at $31.91 per share. As I write the market cap has risen to $2.15 billion, with the stock price at $33.80. I believe that there is always risk in biotechnology stocks from competition, the need for FDA and other national medical agency approvals, and from failure to execute.
Disclosure: I am long Onyx Pharmaceutical. I have no plans to sell or buy ONXX in the immediate future.
Keep Diversified!
See also my notes on the Q2 2011 Onyx Pharmaceuticals analyst call
Onyx Pharmaceuticals home page
Monday, August 11, 2008
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Chooses the Long Run
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) disappointed biotechnology investors with short time horizons when management announced that most of this year's potential profits from cancer drug Nexavar will be reinvested in research and development.
Nexavar (Sorafenib) has been approved by the FDA as a therapy for liver cancer (aka HCC) and kidney cancer (aka RCC). It is marketed through a partnership with Bayer. Under this arrangement Bayer sells the drug and tracks expenses for marketing and research and development costs. The net proceeds after costs are split, with Onyx receiving 50%. Until this year the revenues from Nexavar did not cover the costs, so Onyx received nothing. In addition Onyx had costs of its own, so it reported net losses.
However, global Nexavar sales for Q2 were $168.5 million, more than doubling Q2 2007 sales of $81.3 million. Mostly this reflects Nexavar being approved for use with liver cancer, in addition to its prior approval for kidney cancer. On a global scale most major nations now allow Nexavar for kidney cancer, but it is still being rolled out for liver cancer. All indications are that sales will continue to grow rapidly well into 2009.
Onyx received $30.2 million from Bayer, down from Q1 despite increased sales because of increased joint expenses. GAAP net income was reported as $4.5 million, because Onyx racked up $28.4 million in operating expenses outside the Bayer partnership. It also had some interest and investment income.
Today Onyx, with a stock price of $39.55, has a market capitalization of about $2.2 billion. That is a lot of market capitalization for $4.5 million net income in a quarter. If anything goes wrong (like serious, previously undetected adverse reactions), a lot of that value could disappear.
But Nexavar could also become a blockbuster. It is the first drug to show good results against HCC. It attacks cancer metabolic pathways at multiple points. Chances are good (but not certain) that it will have some effectiveness against a variety of cancers beyond liver and renal. Under FDA rules clinical tests have to be done for approval for each cancer type.
Of course Nexavar could fail with other cancers, either overall or by not doing as well as other therapies. So investing in R&D presents a risk, the possibility that profits from already-approved indications will mostly be drained away for further research.
On the other hand, a good result in a common form of cancer, say one of the common types of breast cancer, would propel the value of Nexavar through the stratosphere.
So I own some Onyx stock, but I realize it is a risky deal. All the more reason to keep a portfolio within the pharmaceutical or biotechnologies segments diversified.
It may be 2010 or later before Nexavar is approved for more cancer types. In the meantime the ramp for liver cancer should result in improved financial numbers. HCC is rare in the United States, where most liver cancer actually started as a different type of cancer. But it is one of the most common types of cancer in China and some other Asian nations. Approval to market Nexavar in China was recently granted.
Nexavar (Sorafenib) has been approved by the FDA as a therapy for liver cancer (aka HCC) and kidney cancer (aka RCC). It is marketed through a partnership with Bayer. Under this arrangement Bayer sells the drug and tracks expenses for marketing and research and development costs. The net proceeds after costs are split, with Onyx receiving 50%. Until this year the revenues from Nexavar did not cover the costs, so Onyx received nothing. In addition Onyx had costs of its own, so it reported net losses.
However, global Nexavar sales for Q2 were $168.5 million, more than doubling Q2 2007 sales of $81.3 million. Mostly this reflects Nexavar being approved for use with liver cancer, in addition to its prior approval for kidney cancer. On a global scale most major nations now allow Nexavar for kidney cancer, but it is still being rolled out for liver cancer. All indications are that sales will continue to grow rapidly well into 2009.
Onyx received $30.2 million from Bayer, down from Q1 despite increased sales because of increased joint expenses. GAAP net income was reported as $4.5 million, because Onyx racked up $28.4 million in operating expenses outside the Bayer partnership. It also had some interest and investment income.
Today Onyx, with a stock price of $39.55, has a market capitalization of about $2.2 billion. That is a lot of market capitalization for $4.5 million net income in a quarter. If anything goes wrong (like serious, previously undetected adverse reactions), a lot of that value could disappear.
But Nexavar could also become a blockbuster. It is the first drug to show good results against HCC. It attacks cancer metabolic pathways at multiple points. Chances are good (but not certain) that it will have some effectiveness against a variety of cancers beyond liver and renal. Under FDA rules clinical tests have to be done for approval for each cancer type.
Of course Nexavar could fail with other cancers, either overall or by not doing as well as other therapies. So investing in R&D presents a risk, the possibility that profits from already-approved indications will mostly be drained away for further research.
On the other hand, a good result in a common form of cancer, say one of the common types of breast cancer, would propel the value of Nexavar through the stratosphere.
So I own some Onyx stock, but I realize it is a risky deal. All the more reason to keep a portfolio within the pharmaceutical or biotechnologies segments diversified.
It may be 2010 or later before Nexavar is approved for more cancer types. In the meantime the ramp for liver cancer should result in improved financial numbers. HCC is rare in the United States, where most liver cancer actually started as a different type of cancer. But it is one of the most common types of cancer in China and some other Asian nations. Approval to market Nexavar in China was recently granted.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Onyx (ONXX) Nexavar Trial and Q4 results
Onyx had its analyst conference yesterday. In addition to going over results from the fourth quarter of 2007, management talked and answered questions about the stopping of the Phase 3 trial of Nexavar combined with chemotherapies for lung cancer patients. See my Onyx Pharmaceutical analyst conference summary for notes on what management said and the questions asked by analysts.
But what you really want to know is, following the plumetting of the stock price from about $46 to about $32 on following the announcement of the cancellation of the trial, is the stock now overvalued or undervalued?
At this moment's price of $31.16, market valuation is near $1.7 billion. What would you get if you bought the whole company.
Nexavar is marketed through a partnership agreement with Bayer. Total sales made by Bayer in Q4 were $125 million. After R&D and market deveopment costs, however, Onyx is only owed $4.4 million by Bayer. It seems trivial, but only recently has Bayer started owing Onyx money instead of the other way around. Onyx spent an additional $22 million on its own. It has a lot of cash, $470 million at the end of the quarter, and generated interest income of almost $6 million on that.
All told the net loss, including non-cash stock compensation for employees, was $11.7 million.
So subtracting the cash from the market valuation gives you about $1.2 billion, which is what the market says is today's value for potential future profits. But remember the market is not magic, it is made up of the trades of a bunch of fallible people.
The near term is easier to see than the long term. In 2008 many nations will begin allowing patients with liver cancer to take Nexavar. So sales will continue to ramp. Management thinks that for 2008 the company may be cash-flow positive. What that means is that non-GAAP net income may be positive, but that GAAP net income, which includes non-cash charges like stock options for employees, may not be.
So here's why the stock is hard to put a simple valuation on: you have to guess what other cancers besides renal and liver cancer will benefit from Nexavar. And it costs money to prove such matters. The FDA not only is very specific in its cancer approvals (it may approve a drug for one type of lung cancer, but not another), but it also may specify stages that a drug can be tried at. Primary drugs are used when the cancer is first discovered; secondary drugs when the primary drugs have failed.
There are over 200 clinical trials going on with Nexavar at this time. Not all of them are paid for by Onyx or Bayer. Some are being done by independent cancer researchers. They cover the gamut of Nexavar's promise: some are for primary use. Some for secondary. Some in combination with other drugs. Some alone. And it is being tried on a variety of types, notably breast cancers and lung cancers.
Given the complexity of the conditions we lump together under the word "cancer," it should not be surprising that Nexavar works better on some cancer types than others. Even for the approved types, kidney cancer and liver cancer, some patients respond better than others.
While the non-small cell lung cancer trial that had to be discontinued was one that doctors, patients, and investors all had great hope for, it is just one failure in a large array. It should not have had such a large effect on the stock price, in itself. Still, we should assign some possibility that it presages a pattern of failure.
But it does make you think about the cost of research compared to the potential profits if Onyx gets permission to market Nexavar for more than its current applications.
In the short run Onyx and Bayer would be more profitable to just stop doing research and instead sell into the improved markets. But a rational investor should favor ongoing research if it is strategic. Nexavar probably has a long run ahead of it. It is running through fog, but it has already proven itself for two cancer types.
So I think Onyx stock is undervalued. 2008 Nexavar sales should cover R&D costs. With so many trials underway, in 2009 or so we should be seeing some data that lets us know how extensible Nexavar's benefits will be.
I don't own Onyx Pharmaceuticals at this time. I do have a small portfolio of other biotechnology companies.
Keep diversified!
More data:
Onyx web site
My Onyx main page
My biotechnology research guide page
But what you really want to know is, following the plumetting of the stock price from about $46 to about $32 on following the announcement of the cancellation of the trial, is the stock now overvalued or undervalued?
At this moment's price of $31.16, market valuation is near $1.7 billion. What would you get if you bought the whole company.
Nexavar is marketed through a partnership agreement with Bayer. Total sales made by Bayer in Q4 were $125 million. After R&D and market deveopment costs, however, Onyx is only owed $4.4 million by Bayer. It seems trivial, but only recently has Bayer started owing Onyx money instead of the other way around. Onyx spent an additional $22 million on its own. It has a lot of cash, $470 million at the end of the quarter, and generated interest income of almost $6 million on that.
All told the net loss, including non-cash stock compensation for employees, was $11.7 million.
So subtracting the cash from the market valuation gives you about $1.2 billion, which is what the market says is today's value for potential future profits. But remember the market is not magic, it is made up of the trades of a bunch of fallible people.
The near term is easier to see than the long term. In 2008 many nations will begin allowing patients with liver cancer to take Nexavar. So sales will continue to ramp. Management thinks that for 2008 the company may be cash-flow positive. What that means is that non-GAAP net income may be positive, but that GAAP net income, which includes non-cash charges like stock options for employees, may not be.
So here's why the stock is hard to put a simple valuation on: you have to guess what other cancers besides renal and liver cancer will benefit from Nexavar. And it costs money to prove such matters. The FDA not only is very specific in its cancer approvals (it may approve a drug for one type of lung cancer, but not another), but it also may specify stages that a drug can be tried at. Primary drugs are used when the cancer is first discovered; secondary drugs when the primary drugs have failed.
There are over 200 clinical trials going on with Nexavar at this time. Not all of them are paid for by Onyx or Bayer. Some are being done by independent cancer researchers. They cover the gamut of Nexavar's promise: some are for primary use. Some for secondary. Some in combination with other drugs. Some alone. And it is being tried on a variety of types, notably breast cancers and lung cancers.
Given the complexity of the conditions we lump together under the word "cancer," it should not be surprising that Nexavar works better on some cancer types than others. Even for the approved types, kidney cancer and liver cancer, some patients respond better than others.
While the non-small cell lung cancer trial that had to be discontinued was one that doctors, patients, and investors all had great hope for, it is just one failure in a large array. It should not have had such a large effect on the stock price, in itself. Still, we should assign some possibility that it presages a pattern of failure.
But it does make you think about the cost of research compared to the potential profits if Onyx gets permission to market Nexavar for more than its current applications.
In the short run Onyx and Bayer would be more profitable to just stop doing research and instead sell into the improved markets. But a rational investor should favor ongoing research if it is strategic. Nexavar probably has a long run ahead of it. It is running through fog, but it has already proven itself for two cancer types.
So I think Onyx stock is undervalued. 2008 Nexavar sales should cover R&D costs. With so many trials underway, in 2009 or so we should be seeing some data that lets us know how extensible Nexavar's benefits will be.
I don't own Onyx Pharmaceuticals at this time. I do have a small portfolio of other biotechnology companies.
Keep diversified!
More data:
Onyx web site
My Onyx main page
My biotechnology research guide page
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