Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Writing about Dot Hill and Nimble Storage

I originally studied Dot Hill (HILL) when I was asked to report on Crossroads (CRDS) back around 2002. I was looking for comparisons in the data storage markets. I bought some Dot Hill and have owned it ever since, but traded in and out of it more than most of my stocks.

When I saw a press release about a comparison of Nimble Storage (NMBL) and Dot Hill products I was already planning to write an update on Dot Hill for Seeking Alpha. Dot Hill has been one of my best performing stocks because I bought most of what I own at between $1 and $2 per share and it is now over $7.

The result was:

Dot Hill and Nimble Storage: Comparing Growth and Risk

I have long found it interesting how stocks pushed by the larger Wall Street banks/brokerages can carry higher valuations than otherwise similar companies. Also how a good story about future profits can clash with actual returns when the future arrives. This story fits both criteria, but has a positive ending, since Nimble will probably grow into its current market valuation over the next 2 to 3 years. The firms that helped it with its recent IPO will continue to advise their clients to buy it, so you cannot count on a dip in price between now and whenever actual profits get to the point of justifying the stock price.

If demand for data storage slows or is disrupted, of course both Dot Hill and Nimble will suffer. But right now they look like growth stories within the storage equipment market.

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