Friday, May 2, 2014

Celgene, Seagate, TTM, SGI and Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Another busy week. Here's my work that you can find for free online:

Celgene in 2015: $200 per share [at Seeking Alpha on April 29, 2014] which was partly based on my summary of the Celgene Q1 analyst call.

Other notes on quarter reports/analyst calls this week:

Seagate is muddling along, with a good (low) P/E ratio, good dividends, and ability to sustain or even grow the dividends as long as the world needs data storage.

TTM Technologies, the PCB (printed circuit board) manufacturer had a seasonally down Q1 but believes the second half of the year will be strong. The analysis here is that as TTMI generates cash and pays down the debt it used to acquire its Chinese factories, earnings will grow.

SGI continues to struggle. The stock price is too high to warrant my buying in (I closed my position
in January); a turn around is already priced in. But I just don't share SGI management's belief that they will do better in the second half.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is in disaster mode, but Wall Street is still treating it like it is already a Gilead or Celgene. Vertex is doing great work helping Cystic Fibrosis patients, but with its Hepatitis C franchise dead, I think it is way overpriced. Way, way over priced. Ridiculously overpriced. I say that as someone who frequently argues that drug pipelines are undervalued by investors.

Next week: Microchip, Hansen Medical, Regeneron, Dendreon and Dot Hill report.

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