Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Positive Yield Curve

Remember the negative bond yield curve? Negative yield curves are supposed to predict recession, and there is some good reason for that. Now if we are not in a recession we are in what might be called a pause. With only a slight return to normal consumer spending patterns and house sales, however, the pause could turn into a ramp. You have heard enough dire predictions for the rest of 2008; I won't repeat them here, and they remain a possibility.

However, lets look at that yield curve. One place to see it is at CNN-Money. It looks extremely positive to me.

So I would not be surprised to see the economy go back into positive territory in Q2. And if the Federal Reserve, as usual, ramps interest rates too slowly, we could start seeing rapid expansion of the economy, and unwelcome inflation, as early as Q4.

For my analysis of specific companies see my Company List page.

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