Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, could buy more

New article at Seeking Alpha

Alexion has Long-term Upside, But the Ride will be Bumpy

I would note that the title I submitted to Seeking Alpha editors was
"Alexion Pharmaceuticals: What to look for in 2016 and Beyond"
I don't have much ALXN in my portfolio, I bought a minimal amount in February 2015 at $175.12 per share. It went well up for a while, now I am down. So I am seriously thinking of buying more Alexion at bargain prices. On the other hand, my cash is limited, and there are other companies that are competing for that cash use. I may even just hold onto the cash for a clearer short-term opportunity.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Agenus upgrade

I own Agenus stock. On January 21, 2016, Agenus had some good news, so I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha:

Agenus Gets 2 INDs: Time to Revalue Upward

I felt particularly good about the news since I increased my AGEN holdings slightly on January 20, based solely on seeing that it was at a 52-week low, and feeling it will be worth a lot, lot more in the long run.

In other recent trades I bought more Star Bulk (SBLK), which is a very risky company, which I don't recommend to anyone, and hope if you do consider it you research it thoroughly and accept the risk involved.

I also bought more GlycoMimetics (GLYC), which is a small biotech company with a novel therapy in clinical trials. Again, because it only has one therapy in trials at this point, if that therapy fails it could mean the failure of the entire company. Buy at your own risk.

It looks like the markets are calming down. I believe most (but not all) biotechnology stocks are undervalued for long-term investors. But what you can buy or sell a stock for on a given day is subject to an auction. Buy low and sell high, which is the opposite of what most investors and traders do, which is why it works. Second option: buy good companies and hold them, and don't worry so much.

I am a journalist and investor, not a financial advisor.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Merrimack Pharmaceuticals and Onivyde

Beginning the week with a new article at Seeking Alpha:

Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Should Drive Higher In 2016 On Onivyde And Pipeline

I must admit I was a bit dubious about Merrimack when I first came across it in the distant past. I took a long time and did quite a bit of research before initially investing in September of 2014. The stock is down, since then (I bought at $7.97), but the progress has been great. I think MACK is a huge bargain at this point, though not without it risks.

This afternoon AMD reports Q4 earnings. I don't expect anything spectacular, but I do hope for some optimism about 2016. AMD is one of my few remaining semiconductor stocks. Almost my entire portfolio is in biotechnology now.

I am a journalist & investor. I try to be honest and pick good stocks for my own portfolio, but that does not mean my portfolio is right for you, nor is any individual stock.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Celgene and Biogen Peek at 2016

It's a busy day. I just listened to Inovio give a presentation, and in less than 30 minutes the one by Alexion starts.

Mainly, I have two new articles at Seeking Alpha:

A look at Biogen's 2016 catalysts

Celgene 2015 Results, 2016 Guidance, and Today's Price drop

Which should you buy? Celgene is as close to a long-term sure thing as you can find in the biotech world. Biogen is much thinner in its future drug pipeline, but if its Phase 3 Alheimer's trials are a success, it could double of triple in value overnight (that would be a night late in 2016 or even well into 2017). Both are great companies.

Oh, and I'll listen to the Merrimack presentation this afternoon (2:30 PM Pacific Time), while in the next few minutes I'll try to read the comments on my new articles and reply if it seems helpful.

Have I lost big time in the opening days of 2016! You betcha! But the companies are all the same and are going to be worth a lot more in a few years.

Keep diversified!

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Playing the Market vs. Owning Companies

Like most investors, my stock portfolio has taken a serious hit since the year 2016 began. Hence I need to remind myself of a few basic facts.

The stock market is an auction market. It is a convenience to be able to trade your stocks for cash, or vice versa, any given moment of most weekdays. But whether you get a fair price depends on the collective bidding of millions of other people and institutions.

As a long term investor, I need to think of myself as a business owner. A stockholder of a number of important companies. In my case, companies that invent, develop, and provide medicines to people.

A slow down in industrial development in China should not affect the long-term earnings of the biotechnology companies I own.

Things can go wrong, like a promising drug candidate failing to pass a clinical trial. Or an older drug that is making money being replaced by a better drug made by a rival, or eventually going generic.

I am willing to sell some of my stocks to fools if I think the auction price of the stock has gotten well beyond its real long-term value.

And I am willing to buy from fools when stocks I want have fallen below a price that is attractive to me.

But what I think has been going on this week is algorithms chasing algorithms. More than half of trading is typically done by computers, on behalf of real people. Algorithms panic easily.

I am not buying right now because I don't have that much cash in my portfolio. Prices have not reached truly bargain-basement levels. It they do, I will likely transfer some funds into my account in order to do some buying.

I like my Biotech portfolio. I believe that certain stocks, notably Gilead, were already undervalued before the sell off began.

As a stockholder in companies with growing drug portfolios, revenues, and profits, I can wait. If the stock price does not reflect the true value of the company, then the company will return some of the profits to stockholders, by reinvesting, stock-buy backs, or my favorite, increasing the dividend.

But there are many styles of trading stocks and investing in companies. Including those computer algorithms.

The American economy seems to be strong despite weakness in the oil and gas sector. That should ultimately allow better healthcare for Americans, and allow people (and the government and insurers) to afford the new miracle drugs my companies have developed and continue to develop.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

How I got a 15.7% return in 2015

Per my agreement with Seeking Alpha, I have to send you there to read it:

How I got a 15.7% return in 2015

But in a word: carefully selecting biotechnology stocks.