Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Microchip (MCHP) fiscal Q1 analyst call notes posted

Microchip had a good quarter. You can read my notes on their analyst call at:

Microchip (MCHP) fiscal Q1 2014 Analyst Call report

This is a dividend and growth stock, a nice combination for investors.

Hansen Medical, Gilead Sciences, and Biogen Idec

Well I'm having a good day, with Hansen Medical (HNSN) up almost $0.22 to $1.45 at the moment, and Inovio (INO) up $0.21 to 2.08. These were minor positions for me given their risks, but large percentage moves can turn a minor position into a major one, which is why I am always looking for good micro-cap stocks, but never have more than 3 or 4 in my portfolio.

Hansen has actually been doing quite badly until today. I was going to write an article "Hansen still has a pulse" based on preliminary Q2 results in which they again sold only a couple of robotic surgery systems. But today they got a very large cash infusion, showing some powerful investors believe sales are just around the corner, or that Philips or Intuitive Surgical or someone might buy the company for its IP.

Overnight the editors at Seeking Alpha posted my Gilead Sciences Hepatitis C Approval May Be Factored In. I sound wishy-washy in giving a value to Gilead or dissing it or recommending it, but that is because no one knows where the price will be set for the new therapies. The execs at Gilead probably have some ideas, but they are not talking. And they should not, until they get FDA approval. When they announce prices to the medical community the stock price will adjust accordingly as all we analysts plug the therapy price into our spreadsheets. As a citizen I hope the price is low, because the government (we taxpayers) will be footing the bill. As an investor, not so much. In any case actually having a cure (for most patients) is going to cut down on the long-term costs from hepatitis C damage. Then again, if you don't die of liver failure you have to die of something, and whatever it is the doctors and pharmaceutical companies will want to get what they can out of that tragedy.

I still hope to get to Biogen Idec today. This afternoon Microchip (MCHP) will be reporting, so I'll be taking and posting notes on that conference.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

New Celgene (CELG) article

I have a new article published today at Seeking Alpha:

Celgene Up Over 100% in a Year. Still a Buy?

I also have an article under editorial review on Gilead (GILD).

Today I hope to write up my thoughts on Biogen Idec as well.

On the whole Celgene, Biogen, and Gilead, plus Onyx Pharmaceutical, have been my best investment segment. Buying them goes back to the time I wrote:

Choosing a Biotechnology Stock

Which, while the specifics have changed, still gives some good tips on what tips to look for if you want to choose individual stocks instead of a biotechnology fund.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Gilead Sciences and Biogen Idec analyst call summaries posted

I have now posted my notes on two more calls:

Gilead Sciences (GILD) Q2 2013 analyst call

Biogen Idec (BIIB) Q2 2013 analyst call

Celgene analyst conference call notes

I have posted my notes on today's Celgene (CELG) analyst conference call:

Celgene (CELG) Q2 analyst call

The key takeaway was updated 2013 guidance.

I'll also be taking notes on Biogen Idec and Gilead today. I have a Xilinx article in the Seeking Alpha queue that needs some links to be added. I will probably write about Celgene next, then Akamai, Biogen, Gilead, and Intel and Altera updates, if I have time.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Seagate June Quarter call notes

I was a bit surprised when Seagate (STX) had released its fiscal Q4 results and held its conference call before I even woke up this morning.

I have now posted notes on the call: Seagate STX fiscal Q4 analyst call

Akamai will be reporting this afternoon. I own shares of both Seagate and Akamai.

I now owe articles on both Altera and Xilinx ... busy, busy, busy.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

AMD Q2 results analyzed

My new post at Seeking Alpha:

AMD has been a dog for some time, but I see Q2 2013 results as showing its about to get up and show us what a smart dog can do. I own AMD stock and am thinking of buying more. I believe AMD can do well bringing its semiconductor design expertise into industrial and medical applications, but of course we won't really know until the second half of 2014.

You can also see my notes on last week's call here: AMD Q2 2013 earnings call summary

Later today I hope to post notes on the Altera Q2 2013 analyst call, and I'm trying to find time to write up my thoughts on their rival Xilinx for Seeking Alpha. Then Akamai on Wednesday.

But my big day this week, covering a large % of my portfoliio, is Thursday when Biogen, Celgene and Gilead  all report on their June quarters.

Keep diversified!

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Xilinx analyst call notes available

I am resuming coverage of Xilinx (XLNX) with notes on the July 17, 2013 analyst call:

Xilinx fiscal Q1 2014 conference call

I hope to have an article up at Seeking Alpha in the next couple of days.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Covering Altera (ALTR) again

Now that I have a larger audience through Seeking Alpha, I am going to cover a wider variety of technology and biotechnology stocks. I am starting with a company that I covered in the past, Altera Corporation (ALTR)

In my introductory article, Altera Worth Watching for Upside Surprises, I take an essentially neutral stance. In future articles I'll be digging more deeply into the Altera story and comparing it with rival Xilinx, as well as other semiconductor companies that make programmable logic devices (PLDs).

AMD reports later today. I will be in transit, but hopefully can get a report out tomorrow.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) Amgen Bid, review

Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) is up roughly 50% today on news that Amgen made a $120 per share bid to buy the company, which was rejected.

I certainly agree with the Board that the bid undervalued Onyx. Whether there will be a bidding war is a matter of speculation. I believe that Onyx can do well continuing to operate independently if no reasonable buyout offer is made.

Since no substantial new information is available for analysis, I just going to provide links to my prior articles. Note that the buy-side, Wall Street analysts that are touting ONXX today were mostly dissing in back in 2008-2012.

From latest to earliest:

Onyx Pharmaceuticals Sees 2013 Acceleration [January 7, 2013]
Kyprolis Approved [July 20, 2012]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals New Back of Envelope [June 27, 2012]
Carfilzomib (Kyprolis) Recommended for Multiple Myeloma by FDA Committee [June 20, 2012 press release]
Onyx (ONXX) Sees New Product Upside [November 21, 2011]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Gets $160 million for Nexavar, Plus Regorafenib Royalties [October 12, 2011]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Readies Carfilzomib [August 17, 2011]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals ASH Conference [December 7, 2010]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) Jumps on Carfilzomib Revenue [November 22, 2010]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Jumps on Carfilzomib Data [August 8, 2010]
Onyx Pharmaceuticals Acquires Proteolix, Carfilzomib [October 12, 2009]
Onyx Breast Cancer Trial Results [September 30, 2009]
Onyx Positive Surprise for Investors [November 11, 2008]
Onyx Chooses the Long Run
[August 11, 2008]
Onyx In The Black [May 7, 2008]
Onyx (ONXX) Nexavar Trial and Q4 results comments [February 20, 2008]
Can Onyx Deliver? [May 10, 2007]

In addition, you can find my notes for years of analyst conferences at OpenIcon Onyx Pharmaceuticals Analyst Conference Summaries

And here's the Onyx Pharmaceuticals Confirms Receipt of Unsolicited Acquisition Proposal from Amgen press release.